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Uncategorized – Paradigm Consultant https://www.paradigmconsultant.com Shifting Momentem... Mon, 07 Dec 2020 14:48:05 +0000 en hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.24 Triple Spectre that Haunts Indian EV Policy https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/triple-spectre-that-haunts-indian-ev-policy/ Thu, 05 Apr 2018 10:56:09 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1760 After setting an audacious goal of having 100% electric mobility by 2030, as announced by India’s Minister of Transportation in September 2017, we now find a situation of “electrifying confusion” regarding the goal post.

At the government level, different people are making contradicting statements and as always is the case in this country, that clear policy direction does not emerge.

Obviously, the lack of unified thinking among the government circle is quite visible when the Transport Minister says in January 2018 that the Electric Vehicle (EV) policy has been drafted by Niti Aayog and was awaiting for the cabinet approval. Then, he backtracks from this statement, a month later, saying that as such there was no need for EV policy. As a rejoinder, Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog suggests that India needs an EV policy, though the priority should be onto two-wheeler and public transportation. He further opines that as a nation our focus should be on this larger segment of electric mobility and not focus on cars.

There is more to this issue than meets the eye. In fact, the underlying issues for such backtracking and confusion seems to be the “Triple Spectre” which haunts India’s electric mobility odyssey.

Let us briefly look into these three factors.

  1. The Reality of Abatement of Carbon Footprint

Electric vehicles reduce pollution only if a high percentage of the electricity mix comes from renewable sources and if the battery manufacturing takes place at a site far from the vehicle use region. Industries which will emerge due to increased electric vehicle adoption may also cause additional air pollution.

One of the primary aspects of the audacious goal set for electric mobility was to deliver multiple co-benefits implying improved environment, energy security and renewable integration. Therefore, there is an imperative that there should be a domestic EV policy to improve competitiveness of electric vehicles.

“India can save 64% of anticipated passenger road-based mobility-related energy demand and 37% of carbon emissions in 2030 by pursuing a shared, electric, and connected mobility future”, according to a Niti Aayog-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) report.

In a paper published by some IIM Ahmadabad researchers build various scenarios of EVs penetration. In a “business-as-usual” scenario, the overall transportation energy requirements increases nearly six fold between 2010 and 2050. The overall dependence on fossil fuels continues despite some diversification towards natural gas and bio-fuels. However, after 2020, electricity starts emerging as significant option, based on transportation for intercity passengers, freight movements, implementation of metro projects and diffusion of EVs (buses, cars, two/three wheelers). As per this model, the share of EVs in overall electricity demand rises from about 54% in 2020 to 67% in 2050.

In case of aggressive penetration of EV scenario, the overall demand of energy is lower because of the fact that EVs are more energy efficient. However, with addition of Low Carbon Society (LCS implies a global stabilization target of 2°C for global warming) coupled with EVs scenario, the energy demand further reduces. These are presented in the Figure 2 below:

It also means that if we have to achieve LCS goals, it is imperative that India’s EV policy document (as and when developed) must mandate use of renewable energy resources for charging of electric vehicles.

This would also help Indian renewable energy generation companies who are developing about 175 GW capacity including 100 GW from solar by 2022. Essentially, the fates of solar power and EVs in India are intertwined, provided that EVs have batteries that can offer a storage solution to India’s clean energy push.

Solar power generated during the day needs to be stored in batteries. The storage capability of EV batteries could help with grid balancing. This may mitigate a perceived risk that EV charging would lead to intermittent surge in electricity demand. Unless battery based storage facilities are created, there is a possibility of breakdown of India’s already stretched electricity distribution networks.

As seen in all the three cases presented by IIM scholars that EVs would lead to fresh demand for electricity. In fact, this could be a boon to our entire power sector as currently the lack of demand is weighing down the sector. Any uptake in demand for power will help improve the financial viability of currently stressed power sector projects.

Therefore, government is under dilemma whether to have a policy document that mandates only use of renewable energy for EV charging or to have those currently stressed power assets also have a play. Certainly, it is a tough decision to make. If the currently stressed power stations (which are largely fossil fuel based) get a play, then the role of reduction of carbon footprint would not be achieved for a country that still produces 75% of its electricity needs through fossil fuels.

Some may argue that the introduction of EVs would simply move the pollution of city roads to its hinter lands where power is generated.

  1. Impact on India’s Auto-component Industry

The Indian auto-component industry has experienced healthy growth over the last few years. It has grown to reach a level of Rs 2.92 lakh crore (US$ 43.52 billion) in FY 2016–17 and is further expected to grow by 8–10 % in FY 2017–18. As per an estimate by the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), the Indian auto-components industry is likely to reach a turnover of US$ 100 billion by 2020 backed by strong exports.

The auto-component industry accounts for almost 7 % of India’s GDP and employs as many as 25 million people, both directly and indirectly. A stable government framework, increased purchasing power, large domestic market, and an ever increasing development in infrastructure has made this possible.

Currently, the auto-component industry is deeply worried about the rapid transformation of the industry, i.e, from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs. Deeply concerned, ACMA represented to Niti Aayog in December 2017. The key points they lobbied were the current and project industry investments and the massive job losses. These are some of things that this country can ill afford. Therefore, government should take a more calibrated approach in quest of its rapid propagation drives for EVs to provide time to the industry to transit to making components and sub-assemblies or for this new segment of vehicles.

The industry’s plea seems to be genuine, given the fact that internal combustion engines which are used in most cars, have more than 2,000 moving parts, while an EV has about only 20, resulting in fewer breakdowns. Among the parts whose demand will dry up once EVs dominate in India are, the engines, transmission, aluminum castings, cylinder blocks and cast iron. The graphic below shows that taken together these constitute almost 50% of the industry. Such components will be replaced by electric motors which will run by batteries.

Yet another anxiety being expressed by the industry is that the ICE power-train contributes to over 60% of the employment generation in the auto component sector, and that a switch to 100% electric could impact up to 5.6 million jobs by 2025–26.

Following the global trend, the Indian auto-components industry is likely to follow OEMs in adoption of EV technologies. The global move towards EVs will generate new opportunities for automotive suppliers. The mass conversion to EVs may generate a US$ 300 billion domestic market for EV batteries in India by 2030.

The emergence of electric vehicles means a new ecosystem will have to be built and a lot of component manufacturers will have to adapt and transform to make the appropriate components and sub-assemblies for EVs.

As far as the adoption of EV technology is concerned, Indian automotive industry currently lags behind to its global peers by 7–8 years. This also a cause of concern, as it may erode competitive advantage of our local component industry, significantly.

Given the fact that this industry contributes substantially to GDP and job growth, it very preeminently is the poster boy of Indian manufacturing story. On one hand, the government is propagating various initiatives such as Make in India with an outlook to improve the employability opportunities for young population. On the other, they want rapid proliferation of EVs to meet the global targets of carbon footprint mitigation. To balance these opposing necessities, SIAM (Society for Indian Automobile Manufactures) has, in concurrence with the Niti Aayog come up with a via media that 40% of vehicles in India would be shifted to electric while vehicles used for public transport would be 100% shifted to electric by 2030.

This is another behind-the-scene issue that makes government diffident in bringing out a definitive policy on EVs. They are likely wait till checks and balances between two opposing key initiatives are thought through.

  1. Threat of Electronic Components Import Bill exceeding the Petroleum Import Bill

A major thought process behind India’s ambitious target of 100% electric mobility is to drastically reduce the crude oil import bill. According to a Niti Aayog-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) report, adoption of EVs would result in a reduction of 156 Mtoe in diesel and petrol consumption by 2030. At $52/bbl of crude, this would imply a net savings of roughly Rs 3.9 lakh crore (approximately $60 billion) in that year.

The writings is on the wall — as with emerging technology, battery costs will continue to decline as manufacturing and the chemistry improves. Oil companies can reduce costs, but commodities do not see costs decline in the same way. Finite natural resources see costs rise as they become scarcer. The possibility that oil remains cheap indefinitely would only be because EVs destroy demand. As per a Bloomberg’s estimate, the EVs could capture 35 percent of the market by 2040, which would displace 13 mb/d.

All this is fine in principle, but the following data, as per the ICICI Securities report, shows a very disturbing trend for India.

As per the above graph, petroleum products by far constitute the largest segment of India’s import bill. But, it is predicted to change soon as electronic goods bill will surpass the oil bill by 2020.

This is because, India is one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world with an estimated size of US$69.6 billion in 2012. With a CAGR of 24%, it is expected to surpass the US$400 billion mark by 2020. However, sharp growth in demand for electronic goods is unlikely to translate to higher domestic production, which is currently at US$32.7 billion and likely to cross US$104 billion by 2022. While the domestic industry will cater to only a fourth of this demand, India will still need to import goods worth US$300 billion, roughly equivalent to the country’s oil import bill. Till 2015, electronics imports at US$37 billion were the third highest import item next only to crude and gold.

Now, India is staring at an import nightmare of an unprecedented rise in proportion of electronic goods that can push the country into a spiral of high imports. This would necessarily entail higher external and internal borrowings and does not bode well for India’s economy in the long term.

India’s electronic goods production was inadequate to meet demand due to deficiency in skill level to compete with imported products. Hence, to meet the rising demand, India is heavily dependent on import of electronics goods from China, US and other South East Asian regions. If we dig deep, the main reason behind the rising import of electronic goods is shortfall in domestic production. Local production faces a substantial cost disadvantage constraining investment in plants and equipment, technology absorption, development capability and innovation.

There is a possibility of double whammy surrounding India’s EV program.This is because India does not have enough lithium reserves for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries. This could lead to a substantial change in the country’s energy security priorities, with securing lithium supplies, a key raw material for EV batteries, becoming as important as buying oil and gas fields overseas. So, on one hand the gains in reduction of oil import bill may get supplanted by securing lithium supply. On the other hand, in immediate run, the lithium batteries would again be imported from China and South Asian countries, leading to further bloating of India’s electronic good import bill.

Indian auto ancillary firms are worried about the EV story going the solar module way with most solar power developers sourcing modules and equipment from countries such as China, where they are cheaper.

The lack of battery manufacturing in India is a real problem. If India is not able to get its act together quickly enough to get into the manufacturing of all these new sunrise industries associated with EV ecosystem. Even on batteries, the same thing is going to happen. Already, China is making massive investments at massive scales, and we are still contemplating on it.

The delay in the EV policy is also possibility due to the fact to first get Electronics Manufacturing Policy in place to access from global networks of innovations and productions. This may result in indigenisation of sub-assemblies and key components for EVs. Over the years, local manufacturers faced barriers in the form of restrictive regulations and a largely poor implementation of past policies, which stymied investments in plants and equipment, technology absorption and innovations. This could be attributed to high cost of finance at 11–13% (cost of fund) against 2–4% globally, high power cost due to irregular power supply, etc. This, coupled with higher tax imposed by the Indian government, makes manufacturing of electronic products unviable in the country. All this has to change to make sure that the EV components (batteries, electric motors, electronic control modules) are made in India which will provide not only an alternative to auto ancillary industry, but also help in containing the electronic imports.

Conclusion

The slow down on getting the EV policy out is based on the fact that simultaneously India’s policy makers have to address issues that pertain to:-

1. Manage the reduction in carbon footprint by having calibrated introduction of renewable energy in charging infrastructure

2. Address the issues that are raised by auto ancillary industry through a gradual approach in introduction of EVs, so that the industry has reaction time to acquire the technology and build the production facilities to services OEMs entering into EV manufacturing.

3. Alleviate the lopsidedness of the electronic manufacturing in this country and providing fillip for manufacturing of batteries and other components in India, rather than resorting to massive imports.

 

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Crowded World of Crowd Funding https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/crowd-funding/ Tue, 27 Mar 2018 12:03:46 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1749 Over the last few years, crowdfunding has become an increasingly popular option worldwide for both entrepreneurs and investors. Crowdfunding is a term dealing with the process of raising funds from anyone or specifically from a group (crowd) of individuals to be invested it in a new product or service idea.

The process of crowdfunding has provided entrepreneurs with an avenue to actualize their innovative ideas by getting startup funds.

Definition of Crowdfunding

Getting deeper into the crowd-funding proposition, it is simply a way in which small portions of capital is gathered from a group of individuals or a large number of individuals, with the aim to finance a whole new entrepreneurial journey. This process has become quite popular among the new generation entrepreneurs, because of the easy accessibility and reach through the modern communication medium of social media and the Internet. Some of the champions of crowd funding are websites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo, which help the budding entrepreneurs by aggregating funds from amongst its donor base.  To date cumulatively they have raised USD13.6 billion as estimated in January 2018 and this figure is growing.

Essentially, crowdfunding platform provides the convenience in finding a new venture fund or obtaining an investment, for investors or entrepreneurs.

Brief History of Crowdfunding

Historically, it was in the US the crowdfunding started dating back to the 19th century. Case in point is that in 1885, when government sources failed to provide funding to build a monumental base for the Statue of Liberty, a newspaper-led campaign attracted small donations from 160,000 donors to crowd fund it,

In the recent times, it was only in 1997 that the first very successful crowd funded project happened. It was initiated by a British rock band, who called in funds through the online medium required for their reunion tour. Most of their fans pooled in, and the financing proved extremely successful. However, it was in 2000 that the first crowdfunding website called ArtistShare came in to existence as a dedicated platform paving way for the modern leaders to follow.

With passage of time, crowdfunding slowly established itself as a popular choice among individuals to validate their business ideas, getting exposure, and garnering funds for them. The crowdfunding industry came in as a silent revolution. Its growth, in terms of raising funds, almost tripled in course of just two years from USD530 million in 2009 to USD1.5 billion in 2011, and since then it keeps on growing.

While a massive transition came in the aspect of crowdfunding with the launch of first crowd funding platform “The Fundable” platform in 2012. It created a whole new avenue for entrepreneurs to fund their ideas. It also created the new genre of equity crowdfunding. It was a huge innovation in itself. The tremendous success of Kickstarter and Indiegogo are a testament to the platform concept of crowdfunding.

In India, the term crowdfunding is not new. For example, at Malabar in Kerala, the century old tradition of PanamPayattu (crowdfunding) prevails at its crudest form, as a popular method to collect money for startup a business, construction of houses, marrying off daughters, sending children to abroad for job seeking or even higher-studies or other dire financial needs. Also, the places of worship are built using a large number of donations in many parts of India.

However, the concept of online crowdfunding is new to the country.

Types of online Crowdfunding

There are four distinct types of online Crowdfunding platforms. Each of which caters to different requirements and has its own pros and cons. These are broadly categorized as: rewards, equity, lending and donation.

  • Reward based Crowdfunding- This type is the most common form of crowdfunding today. In this method, there are rewards set at varying levels of the execution, dealing with tangible products and maintains a face to face connection with the client.
  • Equity Crowdfunding- Another popular form is equity crowdfunding. It revolves around the fact that an individual who funds can expect to receive a part of ownership in the organisation which is created through such fundraising. Hence, the company involved in the campaign sells a part of its equity to the members of the crowd who pitched in.
  • Donation based Crowdfunding– Donation or charity based form of crowdfunding is the extreme efforts of individuals in collection to help causes involved with charity. In this form the most common causes for which fund is raised are social and environmental.
  • Lending based Crowdfunding- Also known as debt based crowdfunding, this revolves around the fact of finding a group of individuals who will lend the money based on contract of repayment after passage of certain time.

Reward based crowdfunding: All or Nothing (AoN) and Keep it All (KiA)

All or Nothing is a form of fundraising in which the set objective is to draw a sum only and only if the desired amount of fund is raised or exceeded in given time frame. Whereas Keep It All is a form where the whole amount that is raised is kept without regard to the set fundraised target.

Generally, going by experience, campaigns following the Keep It All form has much more difficulty in reaching their goal because potential funders are worried about they achieving the goal on partial fundraise. Whereas, in All Or Nothing the fundraising goal is focused on embarking on project only if the set target is raised in a finite time as funders believe they are more likely to achieve their goal.

Investors and Crowd-funding!

Among the hundreds of projects launched based on crowd-funding, many of those are based on rewards mean that the investors themselves get the first chance to use product or services coming out of such startup. For example, a drone camera startup promised each investor in lieu of $600 one such devise ahead of general public.

On the other hand, equity based crowd-funding is subsequently making a great progress now, the reason being it allows the entrepreneurs to generate revenue through their products and services while still being in the control of the investors in the venture. As this aspect offers the investors an equity position, the equity based crowd-funding is considered to be a much more secure form of financing, and in the US is regulated by Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC).

Equity Crowdfunding and its potential

Equity Crowdfunding: To get a business off the ground or to provide it with capital to really grow, entrepreneurs have typically turned to outside investors. In this scenario, they sell a part of the equity of their business to an investor/s in return for their capital. Crowdfunding has its own version of this type of financing: equity crowdfunding. In this model, investors can invest as little as $500 sometimes to buy a small share in a business. Companies like AngelListOurCrowdSeedrs, and others are the leaders in this space.

Some of the benefits of Equity Crowdfunding are:

  • Larger amounts of money: When compared to other forms of crowdfunding, equity crowdfunding has the potential to raise larger sums of money. While that doesn’t always happen, the ticket size that investors need to subscribe are much larger than crowdfunding transactions seen in other forms like reward-based crowdfunding.
  • One customer/investor: The investors quickly become a group of people dedicated to making the venture successful and the entrepreneurs can rely on their crowd of investors for feedback, ideas during the early stage. As the venture moves forward, the investors are more likely to invest in future ventures.
  • Peer to Peer (P2P): Lending based crowdfunding allows entrepreneurs to raise funds in the form of loans that they will pay back to the lenders over a pre-determined timeline with a set interest rate.

Lending campaigns tend to take place over a shorter time span of around five weeks and works well for entrepreneurs who don’t want to give up equity in their startup immediately.


 

The top 5 Crowdfunded business campaigns

S.no Startup Venture Platform Amount Raised Time span
1 The Pebble E-Paper Watch Kikstarter $10.2 million 37 days
2 Ouya – an open-source gaming console Kickstarter $8.5 million 29 days
3 Pono Music – innovative listening experience Kickstarter $8.5 million 30 days
4 Bitvore – data analysis and monitoring Fundable $4,5 million 30 days
5 The Dash- first smart in-ear headphones Kickstarter $3,4 million 45 days

 

Kickstarter is the leader crowdfunding platform. Founded in 2009 in New York, it has funded more than 126,000 projects to date and raised more than $ 3 billion. It only offers crowdfunding by donation and has 13 categories: films, music, technology, fashion … It brings together a community of 13 million financiers around the world. The US platform charges a commission of 5% on projects and the average success rate is 35.8% in early 2017.

Crowdfunding in India

Crowdfunding is a very dynamic market in India. The crowdfunding paradigm has accelerated its speed and we see formal and professional structures in this space. The numbers are increasing year by year. Some young Indian entrepreneurs have created successful peer to peer (P2P) lending platform and equity crowdfunding platforms. The P2P lending model contributes to more than 70 percent of the total crowdfunding funding volume. In India, P2P lending model hold great potential to cause disruption in the banking sector. Seeing the sudden growth in the lending startups in India, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has recently regulated the P2P lenders as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

Some of India’s top crowdfunding platforms are namely Bitgiving, Catapooolt, Crowdera, DreamWallets, Faircent, FuelADream, FundDreamsIndia, Ignite Intent, Impact Guru, Ketto and the list is growing day by day.

However, crowdfunding in India is largely limited to donations and loans, because SEBI (Securities & Exchange Board of India) believes that most Indian lack the adequate knowledge of proper investing patterns and they require a disciplined knowledge about the proper functioning of crowd funding of equity in startups.

 

 

Conclusion

Therefore, the whole financial method of funding a project in context to modest contributions from a group of individuals gives life to an idea much more easily than seeking for sum of a substantial amount from a single investor or two. This has been proven in India as well, as the total transaction value on various crowdfunding platforms aggregated to USD8 million by Jan 2018. It is projected to grow on a CAGR of 28% during next 5 years.

To sum up with a quote of Ethan Mollick, a professor at Wharton very truly stated “the unique value of crowdfunding is not money, it is community”.

 

 

Reference Links:

 

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Battery is the new Oil! https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/battery-is-the-new-oil/ Wed, 07 Feb 2018 07:19:09 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1732 Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been around in various shapes and forms even before the advent of Internal Combustion (IC) vehicles. Nearly, 30% of all vehicles on the road were electric cars in that era, but the availability of cheap gasoline and inexpensive cars pushed research into better battery technology to the back burner.

It was not until the 1970s that interest in EVs got renewed, and the development of higher energy density batteries came to the research forefront. Recently, the battery technology has made mass-production electric cars a reality, thanks to the technology advancement. Still, EVs cannot just be made by replacing the engine and fuel tank by electric motors and electric batteries. It is an evolving technology driven to new heights by companies like Tesla, Nissan et al.

No doubt, the heart of an EV is its battery. Unlike the batteries in IC cars, which primarily serve to start the engine and run accessories like the lights, wipers, radio and/or ACs, the battery in an EV runs everything.

 

Importantly, it runs the electric motor, so it needs to be powerful and long-lasting enough to take drivers where they need to go with a minimum of recharging. Until recently, no reliable, mass-producible batteries were manufactured that could make electric cars competitive with IC cars. But, today EVs have not only become feasible, but they are now rolling off the assembly lines of major automobile manufacturers.

Historical Overview

Ever since the discovery of electricity, humans have sought to have simple yet portable source of current in form of a battery. Though, the challenge was that it had to balance; power, weight, cost, and some other factors. Scientists have worked for over a century to get to today’s level of battery efficiency which included many trade-offs. Highlighted below are some of the important milestones of this journey.

Major Milestones in Battery Development

Evolution of Batteries over the years for EV application

Several battery chemistries have been introduced including improved lead–acid, nickel–cadmium, nickel–zinc, NiMH, zinc–air, sodium–sulfur, sodium–metal chloride, Li-ion batteries in the EV segments.

The experimentation with battery chemistries is due to fact that, for EVs there are several factors that could affect battery choice, including cost. However, two factors that determine the fit and use of rechargeable batteries specifically are:

  1. Specific Energythe amount of energy a battery holds in total.
  2. Specific Powerthe amount of current a battery can supply for a given use.

It is depicted in the info-graphic below:

Reviewed below are some of the battery technologies being used in the EVs and the state-of-art, emerging technological development in the field.

Lead-acid

There are 2 types of lead-acid batteries, automobile engine starter batteries, and deep cycle batteries. Automobile alternators are designed to provide starter batteries high charge rates for fast charges, while deep cycle batteries used for electric vehicles like golf carts or e-rickshaws. Historically, most EVs have used lead-acid batteries due to their mature technology, high availability, and low cost.

Lead-acid batteries in EV applications end up being a significant (25–50%) portion of the final vehicle mass. Like all batteries, they have significantly lower energy density than fossil fuels — in this case, 30–40 Wh/kg. However, due to lighter drive-train in EV, higher weight of batteries is partly compensated. Still, with the best batteries EVs of a range comparable to IC vehicles tend to lead to higher weight. Recent advances in battery efficiency, capacity, materials, safety, toxicity and durability are likely to allow these superior characteristics to be applied in car-sized EVs.

Lead-acid batteries powered such early-modern EVs as the original versions of the EV1 and the RAV4 EV.

Due to further developments in EV application, VRLA batteries emerged. A valve-regulated lead-acid battery (VRLA battery) also called sealed lead-acid (SLA) battery. Another type of VRLA battery is the Gel and Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) types of VRLA which can be mounted in any orientation with minimal maintenance.

In India, most EVs are either three wheeled rickshaws or two wheeler. Both the segments are highly price sensitive.

The fact of the matter is that, in India, lead-acid takes the cake with its definite pricing edge. The initial cost of a lead-acid battery pack is much cheaper than its equitable lithium-ion battery (LIB) pack.

Although, the advantages of LIB may justify its price on many levels, the Indian consumer is wary of having to shell out this additional investment in the aforesaid segments.

Specially developed VRLA batteries for EVs application are widely available and are considered as a competitively priced product, the cost of initial purchase is affordable to an EV owner and in the long run, replacements are also favorable in terms of their price. Also, the lack of lithium-in India and the fact that lithium-ion technology for electric cars is a whole new territory and can’t be integrated into current manufacturing regimes.

NiCad battery

The nickel–cadmium batteries (NiCad) is a type of rechargeable battery using nickel oxide hydroxide and metallic cadmium as electrodes and were about 50% more energy dense than the lead-acid. NiCad batteries can be made in a wide range of sizes and capacities. Compared with other types of rechargeable cells, they offer good cycle life and performance at low temperatures with a fair capacity but their significant advantage is the ability to deliver practically their full rated capacity at high discharge rates (discharging in one hour or less). However, the materials are more costly than that of the lead–acid battery, and the cells have high self-discharge rates.

NiCad was state of the art batteries all through the 1990’s. They were used in quite a few EVs in France and US. However, the environmental impact of the disposal of the toxic metal cadmium has contributed to waning of this technology for EV applications.

Nickel Metal Hydride

The demise of NiCad batteries for EVs led to development of Nicket-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) batteries which are about 200% as energy-dense as lead-acid. These were first used by Toyota Prius and Honda Insight hybrid electric cars. However, an NiMH electric car battery pack would simply be too heavy to achieve range improvements.

NiMH batteries are now considered a relatively mature technology. While less efficient (60–70%) in charging and discharging than lead-acid, they have an energy density of 40–80 Wh/kg, far higher than lead-acid. When used properly, NiMH batteries can have exceptionally long lives, as has been demonstrated in their use in hybrid cars and surviving NiMH RAV4 EVs that still operate well after 100,000 miles (160,000 km) and over a decade of service.

 

NiMH battery used in the second generation EV-1 and worked very well. By 2008, more than two million hybrid cars worldwide were manufactured with NiMH batteries.

However, the status of NiMH batteries in EV segment diminished over time due to the increased popularity of lithium-ion batteries.

Li-ion battery

A lithium-ion battery (Li-ion/LIB) is a type of rechargeable battery in which lithium- ions move from the negative electrode to the positive electrode during discharge and back when charging. Li-ion batteries use an intercalated lithium compound as one electrode material, compared to the metallic lithium used in a non-rechargeable lithium battery. The electrolyte, which allows for ionic movement, and the two electrodes are the constituent components of a Li-ion cell.

Lithium batteries were initially developed in the 1970s by using titanium (IV) sulfide and lithium metal as the electrodes. However, titanium disulfide was a poor choice, since it has to be synthesized under completely sealed conditions, also being quite expensive. When exposed to air, titanium disulfide reacts to form hydrogen sulfide compounds which are toxic to most animals.

Batteries with metallic lithium electrodes presented safety issues, as lithium is a highly reactive element; it burns in normal atmospheric conditions because of spontaneous reactions with water and oxygen.

As a result, research moved to develop batteries in which, instead of metallic lithium, only lithium compounds are present, being capable of accepting and releasing lithium ions.

The graphic below shows the currently usable Lithium compounds in LIBs.

At first LIB were not cheap. Actually, the initial commercial LIBs in the mid-90s costed upwards of $3,000 per kWh of energy. However, with technology and manufacturing innovations, the cost of LIBs has come down dramatically, making it the battery of choice for EV applications.By developing mass scale LIB production in its Giga-factory, Tesla now claims that a Tesla Model S battery cost is $240 per kWh and that the expected cost for a Model 3 is $190 per kWh. At $240 kWh, lithium-ions become competitive with $3/gallon gas. At $150, they are even competitive with $2 gas.Therefore, it is expected that for next 5–10 years, the LIBs will rule the roost in so far their application in EV segment is concerned. In fact, experts estimate that lithium-ions will continue to increase capacity by 6–7% annually for a number of years.

This would only be possible with constant improvement of LIBs based on multiple advances. Some of these are as follows:

Efficient Manufacturing

Tesla has already demonstrated significant advances in battery design and production through its Giga-factory. Some of the other players are going to follow the game by better engineering and manufacturing processes, wider and longer cell design allows more materials packaged into each cell and new battery cooling system allows to fit more cells into battery pack.

Better Cathodes: Cathode optimization by manipulating the relative quantities of cobalt, aluminum, manganese and nickel into LIBs, it has significantly increased the energy density. Research is going on to find the materials that store maximum amount of ions.

Better Anodes: Using silicon anodes instead of current graphite ones can increase battery capacity by ten folds. But, silicon anodes have a problem of bloating in size, thus damaging the anode and finishing battery life. Some new approaches to make silicon anode workable include:

  • Encasing silicon in a graphene “cage” to prevent cracking after expansion.
  • Using silicon nano-wires, which can better handle the volume change.
  • Adding silicon in tiny amounts in current graphite anodes.

Solid-State Lithium-Ion: High performance batteries can be solid state ionic devices. To achieve the higher energy density in lower cost, development of a solid state electrolyte is essential. In 2017, a new solid-state battery has been unveiled, using glass electrolytes and an alkali-metal anode consisting of lithium, sodium. This design could increase energy density, but it still has some problems to resolve, such as ions moving too slowly through the solid electrolyte.

Emerging EV Battery Technologies

Currently, there are several approaches to battery innovations that may lead to making EVs ubiquitous. Certainly, path to commercialization is long, hard and may have pitfalls too. The graphic below summarizes the possible paradigm shift in the EV battery approach.

Extending Lithium-ion in other ways

There are various ways in which researchers are exploring use of lithium-ions in other chemistries and methods. Some of these are summarized below:

Metal Air Batteries

Some time back, there was an impetus on using metal air batteries, which subsided as the technology could not emerge and LIBs made major stride. Recently, there has been a renaissance in development of this technology.

Aluminum Air Batteries

A new found focus on Aluminum–air batteries has emerged. The driver being that Al-air chemistry has one of the highest energy densities among all batteries. In the past, high anode cost and efficient byproduct removal was a challenge. An electric vehicle with Al-air battery can possibly achieve up to eight times the range of a LIB with a lower weight.

Al-air batteries are primary cells, i.e., non-rechargeable. The aluminum anode is consumed by reacting with atmospheric oxygen (cathode) immersed in a water-based electrolyte to form hydrated aluminum oxide, the battery will no longer produce electricity. Mechanically, it is possible to resurrect the battery with new aluminum anodes. These could be recycled from aluminum hydroxide that is produced.

Phinergy, an Israeli company, has developed innovative aluminum-air battery that is capable of providing energy to power an electric vehicle (EV) for up to 1000 miles at a time albeit, with stops every 200 miles to fill water (electrolyte). It claims to have developed technology of using nano-silver filters that prevent carbon dioxide from entering the system, which used to be a problem earlier resulting in carbonization of the anode. Each anodic plate holds energy to carry an EV for 20 miles and the system currently holds 50 of the plates at one time, which add up to a capacity of 1000 miles. Once the anodes are depleted they must be replaced.

Zinc Air Batteries

Zinc has emerged as a candidate for energy source for EVs. Zinc–air batteries have some properties of fuel cells as well as batteries: the zinc is the fuel, the reaction rate can be controlled by varying the air flow, and oxidized zinc/electrolyte paste can be replaced.

Zinc–air batteries and zinc–air fuel cells are powered by oxidizing zinc with oxygen from the air. They have high energy densities and are relatively inexpensive to produce to the size needed for EVs propulsion.

The first rechargeable zinc-air batteries were produced in 1996 to power vehicles using AC-based drive-trains. The vehicles that first used zinc-air batteries were small and mid-sized buses in Singapore. The advantage of using the zinc–air batteries for EV propulsion is that earth’s supply of zinc is much more abundant than lithium. Research is on to see that zinc-air technology becomes commercialized.

Flow Batteries

A flow battery based on redox (reduction–oxidation), is a type of electrochemical cell where chemical energy is provided by two chemical components dissolved in liquids contained within the system and separated by a membrane. Ion exchange occurs through the membrane while both liquids circulate in their own respective space. A flow battery may be used like a fuel cell or a rechargeable battery.

Recent research excitement to make flow batteries commercially viable is driven by issues around charging infrastructure of current LIBs. Such batteries have technical advantages over conventional rechargeable ones.

In flow batteries, separate liquid tanks (for anolyte and catholyte) can be mounted on the car itself (just like current gasoline tanks) and thereby unlimited longevity can be achieved. Electrolyte stored in this manner is usually pumped through the cells of the battery. They can be rapidly “recharged” by replacing the electrolyte liquid (in a similar way to refilling fuel tanks of IC engines) while simultaneously recovering the spent material for re-energization.

Various types of flow batteries have been developed, including redox, hybrid and membrane less. The fundamental difference between conventional batteries and flow cells is that energy is stored not as the electrode material in conventional batteries but as the electrolyte in flow cells.

Membrane less flow battery approach at Purdue University

A flow battery technology developed by Purdue researchers claim an “instantly rechargeable” method that is safe, affordable and environmentally friendly, akin to refueling a car at a petrol station.

Essentially, the technology uses, redox reactions in immiscible-fluids in porous media to achieve membrane less flow battery.

They claim to be the first to remove membranes from flow batteries leading to reduction in costs and extension of battery life. Membrane fouling can limit the number of recharge cycles and is a known contributor to many battery fires. Their startup called ‘IFBattery’ is producing components that are safe enough to be kept in a home garage and are stable enough to meet major production and distribution requirements in a cost effective manner.

MIT approach to develop an air-breathing flow battery

An MIT team has developed another kind of flow battery that breathes air, and can store energy long-term for about a fifth of the cost of existing technologies.

Their design of rechargeable flow battery uses anolyte which is made up of sulfur dissolved in water and they complemented it with a catholyte that is equally abundant (an oxygenated liquid salt solution). It turned out to be sodium which is a charge carrier to go back and forth between the sulfur and air electrode. In search for low cost positive electrode that could be used with sulfur cathode, they found out to be oxygen (air). The smart element of this battery is the fact that the catholyte “breathes” in air in from outside while discharging, and exhales while recharging. By this mechanism, the battery creates negatively-charged hydroxide ions in the catholyte while inhaling, and while recharging that oxygen is released, creating hydrogen ions which then send electrons back into the anolyte. Interestingly, unlike humans, this battery inhales and exhales oxygen and not carbon dioxide. This creates a charge balance by taking oxygen in and out of the system.

They believe that this battery would cost far less to make and run than lithium-ion batteries, while retaining almost the same energy density. Once in use, they estimate a scaled-up version of their flow battery would cost between US$20 and $30 per kWh stored to run, compared to about $100 per kWh for other storage systems.

Conclusion

The future of battery technology is very exciting, across the world in many research labs, the scientists are looking exciting breakthroughs. However, in the near and medium terms most of the research is focused on improving the already-commercialized lithium-ion.

How the battery market transforms itself in the next two decades, one does not know yet. However, one thing is certain that through human endeavor some of these technologies reviewed above may lead the charge to a 100% renewable future.

 

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Cryptocurrency: Future or Mirage https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/cryptocurrency-future-or-mirage/ Mon, 15 Jan 2018 08:22:48 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1704 Today, the minute you start watching any news channel or surf the internet, immediately some news or other on ‘Bitcoin or Blockchain’ pops up .

Currently, the idea of crypto-currencies is one of the most debated topics in the world of finance. Some eminent figures, like Jamie Dimon CEO, JP Morgan have termed it as a “fraud” and called those trading in it as “stupid.” But there are many other leading opinion makers who endorse crypto-currencies as one of the most revolutionary force of the future in the world of finance.

But, amid this chaos, there are whole host of people wonder what exactly is bitcoin and why this stuff is trading so high? In this blog, we would like to demystify some of these concerns.

 

History of Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency, as an entity has been in existence since a long time now. It emerged and came into being way before the currencies in today’s virtual instance emerged. Then it existed in the form of mathematical algorithm and principles from the field of computer science, technically the codes and scripts which were used to curtail past the shortcomings of currencies, practical in nature and political at times.

What is Cryptocurrency?

Ever since the arrival of Bitcoin as early as 2009, many similar projects using the same underlying idea have come up. This has led to the coining of the term ‘Cryptocurrency’, as a collective denomination to such virtual currencies.

The first obstacle that a layperson encounters in this new world is to understand its language. The core idea of such crypto-currencies is the concept of “Blockchain”. According to wikipeadia, a blockchain is a continuously growing list of records, called blocks, which are linked and secured using cryptography. Each block typically contains a hash pointer as a link to a previous block, a timestamp and transaction data. By design, blockchains are inherently resistant to modification of the data. It is “an open, distributed ledger that can record transactions between two parties efficiently and in a verifiable and permanent way”.

 

In a more simple term, cryptocurrency is something which is public and is free for anyone to join and be a part of. Though they differ a lot from one-another in terms of their details, the algorithms, cryptography of the public to private key, the applications pertaining to the real world, the transactions and of course, maintaining a secrecy of the account.

Defining Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency an entity of the virtual world is built using blockchain technology which is nothing but an array of protocols in the cryptographic language, a code which is extremely complex in its characteristics specifically scripted to provide secure and non-decrypt able data transfers. The minds behind this rely eminently on the use of advanced mathematics, and complicated computer engineering theories to curtail and render cracking each segment next to impossible. Not only do they maintain a barrier which is impossible to break, they have the ability to mask the user’s identity, which makes each and every transaction extremely personal and hides the attributes to the person or groups as concerned. Further, the concept of Cryptocurrency has been moulded into its fine structure by the mechanism of de-centralised control, which simply means that the whole innovation is not marked by a single server, rather all the networking components of the entity is handled by the respective users and is expected to do its job with smoother functioning and maintaining a perfect stability.

Seems ordinary? But it isn’t, rather that’s how an exact definition of a currency can be framed. For example; what will happen if you take the money out of your bank account? The only thing remaining will be entries in a database, and is subject to change pertaining to specific conditions. You can also take some coins and notes too, they are also entries limited in number in a database which is physical in presence, and can be changed if and only if you are in possession of the coins or notes. So, money is nothing other than a verified entity to be worthy of entry in some database.

Bitcoin the Modern Avatar of Cryptocurrency

Satoshi Nakamoto (considered to be a fictional figure), brought open to the public the whole concept of Bitcoin, and instantly gathered a group of supporters who enthusiastically took part in exchanging and transacting with this virtual currency.

The first of its kind, Bitcoin became the most used and innovative cryptocurrency to be used publicly for exchange and transactions combined with a decentralized control, giving each user the access the right to hide or showcase themselves, holding the transaction records in place through block chain, and ultimately the scarcity which was built-into the system.

But soon by the end of 2010, dozens of other crypto-currencies serving various purposes such as the Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and many of its kind emerged.

Future of Bitcoin and other Crypto-currencies

When the future of the crypto-currencies is discussed, many argue that these coins can solve many problems that the world faces today. One humanitarian use of such currency is as a solution to problems for stateless people as way to overcome citizenship issues, so to speak.

Having proven its pre-eminence and its first mover advantage, gives Bitcoin the staying power in the market as the cryptocurrency. But what does the future hold? Its biggest risk tends to be the parallel treatment of other crypto-currencies, which has the potential to substitute it anytime and question its prominence. But as claimed by the hardcore users of Bitcoin, that due to it’s extremely large share in the market of about 80%, the argument becomes infructuous.

Anyway, when one sees from the context of Bitcoin’s emergence, it is simply gold of this 21st century, but having no issues related to storage! Also having the utmost potential of evolving into something better in the near future, but it still holds a very volatile nature, which needs careful handling.

The Hype and Bubble around Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin itself may be a bubble, the degree to which the world is looking into blockchain and cryptocurrencies illustrates that a new world is on the horizon.

How exactly that market will mature is unknown. No one could have predicted what would follow when the first email was sent in 1971. Similarly when new websites such as SnapChat or Twitter first rolled out people mocked them as impractical. The creators of all these then new technologies laughed their way to the bank.

 

The year of 2017 just ended, but ended on a great note for Bitcoiners! Unexpectedly the market cap of Bitcoin reached as high as $370 Billion, while having started with $17 Billion in Jan’17.

Seeing this huge rise, several people and cryptocurrency enthusiasts shared their prophecies, mentioned below;

  1. Crypto market cap may reach 1 Trillion USD by 2018 end.
  2. Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs may take over the by financing options from IPOs & VCs.
  3. The market shall embrace new form of tokens.
  4. Bitcoin and other prevailing crypto-currencies stand a chance of getting banned in many countries.
  5. The prices of the crypto-currencies will become stable and people may return to tangible transactions.

Conclusion

Some of the above inferences are drawn statistically from the prevalent data, but if one goes by intuition there are 50–50 percent chances of the cryptocurrency to fail or surge. No one can truly support their opinion with 100 percent surety about what the future holds, but surely this innovation has brought about a huge change in today’s society. If this technology prevails in the times to come, it can radically change the financial system that we know and fiat currencies may ultimately disappear.

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Cleantech 2.0 — Holy Grail of Startups https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/cleantech-2-0%e2%80%8a-%e2%80%8aholy-grail-of-startups/ Mon, 18 Dec 2017 11:17:00 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1714 In the quest of growth and industrial development, our generation has polluted and toxified the world in which we live. It is not that we do not understand these side effects of unparalleled growth. From time to time, we have taken various climate control measures, starting from Kyoto protocol, (1997) to Paris Agreement (2015). The UNFCCC and its associated bodies have done a lot to propel the adoption of renewable energy (RE) and other clean technologies.

Certainly, these efforts have been increasing the popular public sentiment pertaining to the RE sector and containing conventional methods of energy generation. Further, it triggered the emergence of several technologies, to reduce the carbon footprints and to mitigate GHGs, together known as clean technology.

Trends in Renewal Energy

A major surge was observed in the RE and Cleantech sector during the term of 2006 to 2016, opposing the mainstream use of commercial alternative form of energy sources, like fossil based fuel used for energy generation. Tracking down the trends in the RE sector, it experienced an 18% growth with new investments flowing in, from 2004 to 2015, and mostly from the developing countries. While there was a 19% increase in the total number of transactions related to the RE assets setting new benchmarks. This has led to huge addition of 147 GW of power capacity, as the new renewable energy globally. Successfully contributing to 19.2% of global electricity consumption derived from the renewable resources.

By 2030, it is projected that RE will contribute to almost 44% in power generation, 48% in heating and other direct usage and 10% to the transportation fuel sector. The sector wise break-up is given in the graphic below.

As depicted below, in another 20 years from now, the share of fossil fuels in power generation would come down from current 65% to nearly 36% which would be a great achievement. Out of the RE sources for power generation by then, Solar will become a predominant source contributing to almost 26%.

Definition

The term ‘Cleantech’ broadly refers to a varied range of products (collective or singular in nature), processes and services which effectively taps the renewable sources of energy and materials, reducing the wastes alongside the emissions and keeping a considerable check on the utilisation of natural resources, ultimately decreasing their consumption.

Key Categories of Cleantech

Cleantech 1.0

The early 2000 witnessed the inception of venture investment in a field now called as “Cleantech”. As we saw, it encompasses verticals such as energy generation and storage, energy efficiency, water treatment, materials, and agriculture. The venture community saw cleantech as the next big technology wave, following the demise of first dot-com era. Investors saw Cleantech investing as a way to achieve multiple bottom lines — not just simple financial returns, but satisfying social and moral objectives as well. It is estimated that $25B in venture investment was made over the period from 2006–2011, peaking at $5B in 2008. Unfortunately, over 50% of that money was lost and the current investments have dropped to an annual level of US$2B.

Reasons for failures of Cleantech 1.0 Startups

  • Its development needs time (normally longer than the 3–5 years which are expected by venture capital funds)
  • It is expensive to scale as one need large factories even before your product is finalized
  • It focuses on commodity markets with high competition and low margins, which reduces the ability to invest in Research &Development
  • It lags incumbent companies that are willing to take the risk and acquire startups

Cleantech 2.0

As the sunset on Cleantech 1.0, a new wave of startups in cleantech is rising. The new dawn of Cleantech 2.0 will focus on less capital intensity and more usage of information technology for such startups to succeed. This strategy at its core implies that it is possible to concentrate on cleantech areas that are not excessively capital intensive. In fact, “small cleantech” may ultimately get much bigger and provide better investor returns than any of the capital intensive cleantech. In other words, this may turn out to be “Cleantech 2.0”

Possible areas for the Startups in the era of Cleantech 2.0.

Renewable Energy: Innovation lies in generation of power through a variety of renewable energy resources including wind, solar energy and biomass, geothermal and tidal energy.

Energy Efficiency: Cleantech start-ups concentrate on improvements in energy efficiency by adopting more efficient technology or production processor by application of commonly accepted methods to reduce energy losses.

Water & Waste: Potable water availability is an important human need and a public policy issue. Cleantech start-ups havecentred around how technologies using RE sources can be used for production of drinkable water. Solid waste management is another big concern globally and it is an area where cleantech can play a pivotal role in initiatives, such as waste-to-energy, using bio degradable waste for multiple purposes, and using recycling techniques.

Distributed energy: Most cleantech startups in this area are working to achieve following in a novel way.

  • Integrating or setting up a grid interactive, and providing on-site renewable energy production capability to the locales.
  • Merging the projects of renewable energy generation to the local transmission grids.
  • As the Micro Grids in rural areas have diversified load & energy generation amounts, they are generally integrated with stand-alone systems, instead of the grid interactive.

Sustainable Agriculture: Traditionally, agriculture has been a large contributor to GHGs emissions due to the usage of animal, fossil fuels driven machinery and burning of agricultural waste. Cleantech in this area means, how usage of RE to power farm machinery and using agricultural waste to generate power can help in this mitigation.

Sustainable Transport: Most start-ups in this area are around electric vehicles (EV) which have bright future in term of its impact in reduction of usage of fossil fuels and thereby reducing the carbon footprint. Another area that start-ups are working on is the provision of EV charging stations using battery storage coupled with wind and solar energy.

Green IT and Clean web: Green IT start-ups work through collection of strategic and tactical initiatives that directly reduces the carbon footprint of an organisation’s computing operation. Other such start-ups concentrate on reduction of environmental impact of its manufacture, transport, usage and disposal of ICT tools.

Clean Web which is a grassroots movement committed to solving profound issues related to resource constraints of our world through the application of IT.

Characteristics of Startups team

  • Strong Management team for RE startup is critical for successful commercialization
  • Requires multidisciplinary competencies (from electronic engineering to life sciences)
  • Should be savvy in environmental policy
  • Managing required network, industry and government

A few case studies of Cleantech 2.0 Startups

Sistine Solar: The US based startup offers the technology, which an illuminated graphic layer atop a solar panel that can color-match roof shingles which aesthetically pleasing solar panels. For those who have balked at the idea of covering their Spanish tile roofs with shiny black grids, Sistine Solar enables them to conserve energy, keep up appearances and potentially save on electricity bills and add value to the selling prices of their homes. The Sistine received $1 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy.

SkyCool System: Startup works to connect its discs shaped mirrors to air conditioning systems that circulate water, as well as use them to keep solar panels from overheating and stays 9 degrees colder than the surrounding air. They have raised fund in tune of $990,000.

Gram Power: An Indian based startup Gram Power, works on the Smart Grid technologies for electrification challenges in developing nations. In Rajasthan, Gram Power has established Solar Powered Smart Microgrid providing energy for lights, buttermilk machines, televisions and fans, and currently providing solutions to 30 remote villages. The startup was selected among the top 10 Cleantech Innovations by NASA in 2011 and received grant about $1.0Million by US DoE.

Husk Power System: This is another cleantech startup in rural India. The Bihar based Husk Power Systems’ provides power to rural area by making use of company developed proprietary technology. They use a biomass gasifier to generate electricity. Each of the company’s plant is currently serving over 400 rural households, thus saving 18,000 litres of diesel and 42,000 litres of kerosene every year. This further helps in improving the health conditions and reducing indoor air pollution. Husk Power raised Fund about US$ 5.0 Million.

Conclusion

When we look at the size of the climate change challenge, there is much more to be done. Governments and organisations around the world are increasingly pursuing the sustainability plan. It is expected to see greater recognition for the long-term, durable value of cleantech. Question remains how to inspire the next generation of business leaders to adopt even more ambitious sustainability goals and of course how do we give cleantech innovators and entrepreneurs the best chance of success.

About the author: Dr Parag Diwan is a noted energy professional and an established ‘Eduprenuer’ who has built some of the finest Institutions. Currently, he runs his own consulting firm which helps institutions, energy companies and entrepreneurs.

 

 

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