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Paradigm Consultant https://www.paradigmconsultant.com Shifting Momentem... Mon, 07 Dec 2020 14:48:05 +0000 en hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.25 Is Education 4.0 an imperative for success of 4th Industrial Revolution? https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/is-education-4-0-an-imperative-for-success-of-4th-industrial-revolution-2/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 14:48:05 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1788

Although the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) was publicly announced in Davos in 2016, various elements related to what makes this new dimension has been ongoing for almost a decade. The term received wide publicity when German Chancellor Angela Merkel highlighted at the Hanover Fair in 2011, the emergence of Industry 4.0 to make German manufacturing more competitive.

Emergence of Industry Revolution 4.0

Industry 1.0: (1784) : Based on mechanical production equipment driven by water and steam power.

Industry 2.0: (1870): Based on mass production enabled by the division of labor and the use of electrical energy.

Industry 3.0 (1969): Based on the use of electronics and IT to further automate production.

Industry 4.0 (today): Based on the use of cyber-physical systems.

 

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The reason to say that the fourth industrial revolution is in full force today is due to the fact that velocity and impact of current breakthroughs is like never before. The innovations and advances are omnipresent led by strong emergence of fields like Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Internet of Things, Autonomous Vehicles, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, 3-D Printing, Material Science, Quantum Computing and Energy Storage. The impact of such breakthroughs is so rapid that the fourth industrial revolution is evolving at an exponential pace, and disrupting almost every industry.

Opportunities brought by Fourth Industry Revolution

Industry 4.0 can play a vital role in raising the global income levels and take our current stand of living to a next orbit. Technology has made it possible to make products and services that enable us to lead a better life. This will drive gains within the efficiency and productivity of our current lifestyle, leading to:

  • Increase in global income levels
  • Enhanced quality of life with higher order technologies
  • Reduction in transportation and communication costs
  • Creation of new products and markets
  • Safer workplace as hazardous work is taken over by robots
  • Enhanced health services leading to longevity

Challenges of Fourth Industrial Revolution

On the contrary, one of the biggest challenges is that it could lead to even higher inequality, as emerging technologies take over labour intensive jobs. But, then Economist Eric Brynjolfsson has famously said, “Technology has always been destroying jobs, and it has always been creating jobs.” Apart from this, the other challenges could be:

· Security issues of data and maintaining privacy

· Risk of greater inequality in labour markets

· Decrease in real income of workers as machines take over

· Displacement of workers by machines and artificial intelligence

· Creation of higher order human jobs is always a concern when automated technologies takeover day to day jobs

The Six Drivers of Change in workplace brought by Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industry Revolution with its opportunities and challenges will bring to the forth the new drivers of change in workplace and organizations. These are summarized in the info-graphic below:

 

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Graphic Source: http://www.top10onlinecolleges.org/work-skills-2020/

The Skills of Tomorrow needed in the 4IR world

With the drivers of change as enumerated above, the skill-set that would be required by the “jobs- of –the- future” would change rapidly. Some of these skills are specified in the following info-graph.

 

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Graphic Source: http://www.top10onlinecolleges.org/work-skills-2020/

The points to ponder here is whether our education framework today can lead to development of such skills, which will also meet the aspiration of our Generation ‘Z’, who will cut their teeth in 4IR world.

Aspirations of Gen Z

Gen Z is defined as teenagers ages between 13 to 19 currently. They are growing up in a time so revolutionized by technology that it hardly resembles that of their parents and grandparents. This is the generation that would be attending colleges in the coming years!!

 

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Source: Generation Z: Teens, Tech, and What the Future Holds, author Shelly Kramer

In a recent survey conducted among this generation, three notable aspirations came out strongly; about 22% of them expressed desire of relevant and meaningful education to equip them for jobs of the future; about 38% wanted strong growth early enough in their careers and another 32% wished most of their dreams to be fulfilled within 10 years of their entering the new age exciting career.

Changed Habits of Gen Z

We now come to issues of how the current Generation Z has changed from those of the earlier generations in terms of reading and learning habits. The table below summarizes these changes:

 

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Need for Education 4.0 framework

 

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One of the imperatives of the 4IR is human capital enhancements to be able to meet the knowledge and skills requirements. This, as we saw in previous section, puts demand on knowledge production and innovation applications of knowledge. Also, changes in reading and learning habits need that educationalists devise new pedagogical techniques. The rapid pace of emergence of Industry 4.0 requires that Education 4.0 also leapfrogs from the current Education 2.0 framework to Education 3.0/4.0.

Education 1.0: centuries of experience with memorization
Education 2.0: Internet-enabled learning
Education 3.0: Consuming & Producing knowledge
Education 4.0: Empowering education to produce innovation

Following tabular representation depicts the stages of evolution of education over the years. This construct shows how things have changed from education 1.0 to the emerging education 4.0 paradigm.

 

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Source: Framework of John Moravec as adapted by Arthur M Harkins

5 I’s of Learning in Education 4.0

A learning framework is presented below which is aligned to changed habit of Gen ‘Z’ and need for an innovation producing education.

  1. IMBIBING : Internalizing basic concepts
  2. ITERATING: Practicing fundamental skills rigorously
  3. INTERPRETING : Taking facts from study and applying them to different situations with adaptive alterations
  4. INTEREST: Developing enough curiosity about a subject so as to delve deep and create further body of knowledge
  5. INNOVATING: Think differently and come up with original concepts and build innovative ideas, products and services

Building the I’s in Education 4.0

Now, let us briefly dwell on how the various facets of the learning model will operate.

Imbibe— from different sources

  • Boredom sets in easily for today’s students, there need to infuse excitement from visual and aural inputs
  • Use multiple sources — the Internet is your best friend, films, experiences
  • Change source material year after year keeping the curriculum at the leading edge.

Iterate— through fun

  • Gamify tests — run them as competitions
  • Subject championships as teams, evaluated through the year
  • Redefine assignments — as challenges where more and more elements of knowledge can be synthesized.

Interpret

  • Form student teams and give open-ended projects involving sports or other avenues. For example, while teaching Economics basics, let students do a project on valuation models for football or Kabaddi players.

Interest

  • Cover one part of a concept in class, get a group of students to deliver the remaining part. Different group for each concept. This removes stage fright and makes them willing participants too.

Innovate

  • Go cross-discipline. Groups of teachers amalgamate subjects to craft year-long projects with a presentation month.

Building Undergraduate program in context of E4.0 and 4IR

 

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Graphic depicts various components to build Undergraduate program in Education 4.0 Era.

Programs designed to produce Professional Triathletes who can excel in many dimensions that would be needed for the workforce of 4IR

  • Core of Business or Technology Discipline
  • Specializations for careers of tomorrow
  • Digital Marketing, Business Analytics, Machine Learning & AI, Internet-of-Things, Financial Technologies, etc.
  • Liberal Dose of Liberal Studies

A truly well-rounded personality building experience — courses on Literature, Performing & Visual Arts, Public Policy, Psychology, Sociology, Media, Design

• Learning by Doing

• Social Sector Internships, Study-Abroad Terms, Industry Engagement

Pedagogical Approach in world of E4.0

From rote to rigor : Not remembering the right answers, it’s about figuring out the right questions

• It’s not about YOU: Emotional Intelligence supersedes individual brilliance. Learn in teams, grow as teams.

  • Creators shall inherit the Future: Schools and institutions must pledge NEVER to shoot down ideas. Foster creativity by open-ended questions that take greater time to evaluate but lead to true thinking and real innovations

— — — — — –

References:

1. https://industry4magazine.com/the-beginners-guide-to-the-industry-4-0-f45b93a95649 author : Corné Duivenvoorden

2. https://www.strategy-business.com/article/10-Principles-for-Leading-the-Next-Industrial-Revolution: author Norbert Schwieters and Bob Moritz

3. http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/front/docs/sponsored/phoenix/future_work_skills_2020.pdf

 
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India’s New Education Policy: Does It Really Unshackle the Educational Institutions? https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/indias-new-education-policy-does-it-really-unshackle-the-educational-institutions/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 05:32:08 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1783
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Preamble

Several Education Policies have been announced by the Government of India from time to time since independence, to promote the access and equity to education for the people of India. These policies covered varied aspects of our country’s large education scenario from elementary education to college education in rural and urban areas. The first version National Education Policy (NEP) was enacted in 1968 by Indira Gandhi government and after an interval of almost two decades a new version was announced by Rajiv Gandhi government 1986. Post liberalization, another new version came in 1992. Over the last three decades, several changes have been made in the governance and planning and management of education that demanded a comprehensive policy reform. This period also witnessed a large growth in participation of private sector in both secondary and tertiary education. This private participation in a way contributed to doubling of GER (Gross Enrollment Ratio) from 12% in the early 1990s to the current figure of 25%.

 

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Graphic Showing various Education Policy Announcement over the years (courtesy:Buddy4Study)

The Government wants to come up with a reformative national education policy to meet the aspirations of young population which is supposed deliver demographic dividend. It seeks to provide framework for developing quality education, innovation and research in order to address the imbalances in demand and supply of skilled manpower.

The overarching aim is to make India a knowledge superpower by equipping students with the necessary skills and knowledge.

The National Education Policy 2019 is currently a draft document that proposes a fundamental shift in the education landscape of India. A Committee chaired by former Indian Space Research Organization Chief, Prof. K Kasturi Rangan had submitted the draft of the new NEP. Earlier another committee, headed by former Cabinet Secretary TSR Subramanian had submitted a draft new education policy in 2016 which did not find much favour among the various stakeholders.

 

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The draft NEP 2019 has following key elements

  • Art, music, crafts, sports, yoga and social service should form part of the main curriculum apart from these endeavours as co-curricular and extra-curricular activities.
  • Equal treatment of government and private educational institutions, in terms of regulations and funding.
  • Comprehensive reorganization of undergraduate program, over the years the most of programs should be of four-year duration following the best practices elsewhere in the world. This will also help enriching the undergraduate curriculum with proper infusion of liberal study courses.
  • Introduction of an integrated 4 year BA.B.Ed/B.Sc.B.Ed programs as per-requisite qualifications for school teachers.
  • Creation of Rashtriya Shiksha Aayog (National Education Council) to regulate the education sector and subsume some of the current powers of MHRD.
  • Special Regulatory Systems for Professional Education Areas.
  • States can set up Rajya Shiksha Aayog or State Education Commission on lines of NEC.
  • National Research Foundation for strengthening research funding and outcomes.
  • National Higher Education Regulatory Authority for Higher Education in place of UGC.
  • Vocational courses should be made compulsory in secondary school curriculum and vocational degrees could be granted by Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)
  • The National Educational Technology Forum should be formed which would help HEIs in finding and applying appropriate education technology solutions.

Reformation and Unification of Higher Education Institutions (HEI)

Another important recommendation of Committee that higher education would require a new approach for what constitutes an HEI, i.e. a university or a college. It suggests that University has only one definition worldwide, hence the present complex nomenclature of HEIs, such as Deemed University, Affiliating University, Unitary University, etc should be phased out. Also, universities should be distinguished from degree-granting colleges by the fact that they offer graduate programs in a broad range of subjects and have larger enrollments.

Meanwhile, a college should be restricted to be a multidisciplinary institution of higher learning primarily focused on, though not restricted to, undergraduate teaching, and it would generally be smaller than a typical university. The Policy states that all HEIs should evolve into one of these three types of institutions, which will be referred as Type 1: Research universities, Type 2: Teaching universities, and Type 3: Colleges. All affiliating universities will be transformed into Type1,2 universities. All HEI should be universities or degree-granting autonomous colleges. The concept of affiliating university and affiliated colleges should be phased out over next 12 years. The report further recommends that the Universities offering single stream may be phased out and all universities should become multidisciplinary HEIs. Autonomous colleges should have freedom to grant their own degrees.

Incorporating liberal arts and flexibility in curriculum

 

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The Policy highlights the importance of liberal arts education which has indeed become extremely important in view of the kind of skills set that jobs of the future need. These include social intelligence, new media literacy, virtual collaborations, cognitive load management, trans disciplinary etc.

Special Bachelor’s degree options — a 4- year Bachelor of Liberal Arts (BLA) or Bachelor of Liberal Education (BLE) nomenclature to develop liberal studies disciplines is envisaged in the policy. Though traditional B. A, B. Sc, B.Voc., would continue but all bachelor’s degree would eventually move towards integrating to a liberal education approach. The policy draft also suggests for 5-year integrated program wherein students completing a 4-year BLE with Research, could opt for 1-year Masters. PhD would require either Master or 4-year Bachelors with Research.

Autonomy on Curriculum, Pedagogy and Assessment

 

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Google Image: Millennial Generation — Digital Natives

The current Choice Based Credit System (CBCS) framework revised and improved, to make clear basic vision while leaving plenty of room for innovation and flexibility. Today’s generation which is entering institutions of higher learning are increasingly looking forward to build ‘Bespoke degrees’ wherein the key skills set that they wish to acquire in line with jobs of the future. Proper implementation of CBCS will lead to flexibility of education and methodology to build customised degrees.

Quality of Open and Distance Learning (ODL)

 

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The access and opportunities for distance learning curriculum and pedagogy required to be made qualitative in terms of –

i. Transformation of ODL:

a. The make ODL programmes of the highest quality it should be made qualitative at par with the institutional programmes

ii. Leveraging of ODL:

a. Improving the quality of learning experience by including professional and vocational education, life-long learning and certification and supporting development of teachers.

iii. Ensuring Quality of ODL:

a. By way of using highest-rated faculty, courses, and programmes to produce the highest-quality contents for curriculum and pedagogy.

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) as Learner support services

MOOCs make high-quality educational content available to the masses, leveraging videos, quizzes, and discussion forums typically within a four to six-week course session. Further, one’s location doesn’t matter, if one has a high bandwidth internet connection. Moreover, classes are self-directed, so they can fit around one’s schedule. It ensures proper student assessment and development of a mechanism for feedback and performance.

 

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The importance of online education is rightfully endorsed by the new NEP policy. It suggests that MOOCs offered by universities anywhere in the world should be suitably recognised, after ascertaining the alignment of their contents with the National Higher Education Qualifications Framework (NHEQF), and appropriate checks on their delivery methods, modes of interaction with students, and assessment procedures. MOOCs are being developed by premier institutions such as Stanford, Yale, Michigan, and Imperial College London, and others in the same league to deliver content to individuals around the world.

The world class MOOC platform like Coursera have created a specialized offering known as Coursera for Campus (C4C) which is providing online courses for credit use.

As a part of the new NEP, “MOOCs” should be institutionalized at all HEIs offering ODL. The report recommends that the HEIs should be encouraged, through funding and other support mechanisms, to put some of their best courses online. The policy also envisions that going forward, good institutions would be able to offer fully online degrees.

Conclusion

Though it is acknowledged that the policy document is a good beginning, but implementation needs to be done in a manner which will make an impact on future generations.

The direction towards autonomy is still not very clear as plethora of new so-called regulators are being considered by this draft, such as National Education Council (NEC), State Education Council (SEC), General Education Council (GEC) and National Higher Education Regulatory Authority (NHERA). We hope that institutions will not get swamped in this quagmire.

Another point is the openness and willingness to convert open distance learning into a true implementation of online education. The current regulations in this respect are very binding in nature, especially in terms of usage of SWAYAM/NPTEL platforms. The institutions going forward under the NEP should have independence of sourcing, developing and using platform of their choice to disseminate online education.

The new policy should be unequivocal about the duration of undergraduate programs; on one side it says that UG degrees should be four year yet it juxtaposes with continuance of three year BA / BSc degrees.

Policy draft also speaks a lot about liberal studies. However, how to intersperse such education with existing technical and business education, there is no clarity.

Given that it envisages a massive and rapid restructuring of higher education, it would be useful to know how the actual framework would operate otherwise the Indian education would continue to be emasculated by rigid regulatory regime.

Reference: Draft National Education Policy 2019

 
 
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Building a Bespoke Degree https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/building-a-bespoke-degree/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 05:26:13 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1781 Introduction

The modern world is full of complexities and the only constant thing is change. Currently, the ‘disruptive innovation’ has become synonymous with progress, wherein business models look completely different from those that exist in traditional setups. Many believe that we live in a VUCA world; the acronym initially coined by the US Army to refer ‘volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous’ environment. Are we, as Universities or higher education institutions, equipped to train students who can navigate this unpredictable minefield that the world is becoming? This lack of predictability regarding the events and their impact on our lives has led Universities to think about flexible education models.

Many educators and recruiters believe that future jobs are likely to be taken over by robots, artificial intelligence, IoT devices, autonomous vehicles amongst other technologies. A recent study at Oxford University states that about 47% of all-American jobs are at high risk of getting automated by early 2030, less than 10 years from today! The statistics certainly conveys a sense of doom and danger as it has universal repercussion, especially for a populous country like India. However, some researchers in the field of automation highlight that the jobs which fall into three ‘D’ categories, namely the dull, the dirty and the dangerous would eventually be taken over by the machines. Positively, this transition could lead to giving more space for human creativity and imagination to do the things which we humans are good at it and thus add value to the economy.

Nevertheless, the quintessential question arises, how can graduates of the future cope up with these changing times?

Therefore, Gen Z which are entering institutions of higher learning is increasingly building ‘Bespoke degrees’ wherein the key skills set that they wish to acquire in line with jobs of the future. Let us investigate as to how this development can be facilitated.

Flexible Education: A cornerstone to build Bespoke Degrees.

To build a fully flexible system of education, one needs to investigate flexibility along the following five dimensions:

Flexibility in Time explores possibilities of Program start and finish times to be flexible and not be bound to rigid semester schedules. Similarly, the length and pace of various academic programs can also be flexible leading to multiple assessment points and number of annual study periods.

Image from Google

Flexibility in Content implies that Program topics and their sequence can be modified by a specific learner. The types of learning materials, as well as assessment rubrics, can also vary with the need for a learner.

Flexibility in Access Requirements indicates that there could be multiple program entry and exit points as well as recognition of prior learning experience (RPL/E) and the possibility of using bridge courses as well as articulation into other programs.

Flexibility in Instructional Design means that learning mode (group, individual/independent, face-to-face), learning styles (slow, fast, aural, visual, simulated), language(s) of instruction learning delivery modes (lecture notes, printed study guides, recorded lectures) can be customised by using multiple providers of learning resources (teacher, students, library, internet, experience).

Flexibility in Delivery implies that learners can choose from amongst:

• Places of study

• (on-campus, off-campus, online, blended, offshore/twinning, work-based learning)

• The social organisation of Learning

• (contact with instructors and/or other students or individualistic)

• Methods of support and forms of assistance

• (Tutorials, FAQs etc)

• Content delivery channels

• (Physical, Online, Offline, Multimedia, Experiential etc)

• Access to program administrative information and processes

  • (Physical, Online, Offline)

MOOC: A definite mode to assist Flexible Education

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are being developed by premier institutions such as Stanford, Yale, Michigan, and Imperial College London, and others in the same league to deliver content to individuals around the world.

MOOCs make high-quality educational content available to the masses, leveraging videos, quizzes, and discussion forums typically within a four to six-week course session. Further, one’s location doesn’t matter, as long as one has a high bandwidth internet connection. Moreover, classes are self-directed, so they can fit around one’s schedule.

MOOCs reach wide audience cutting across cultures, professions, ages, and education backgrounds. Several MOOC providers have come to the fore to meet this broad audience. Among the most prominent providers are Coursera, edX, FutureLearn, Udacity, and Udemy.

Curating Content for Building Bespoke Degrees

As depicted in the graphic below, the flexible education model in the Universities of tomorrow coupled with the availability of MOOCs which can be integrated the next generation are curating their academic programs in the context of the needs of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Such programs are usually referred to as 4.0 programs in the context of Education 4.0 and Industry 4.0.

Such programs can be customized to produce Professional Triathletes who can excel in many dimensions that would be needed for the workforce in a VUCA world. This may include:

  • The core of Business or Technology Discipline
  • Specializations for careers of tomorrow
  • Digital Marketing, Business Analytics, Machine Learning & AI, Internet- of-Things, Financial Technologies, etc.
  • Liberal Dose of Liberal Studies
  • A truly well-rounded personality building experience — courses on Literature, Performing & Visual Arts, Public Policy, Psychology, Sociology, Media, Design

Some of the MOOC providers are now developing special offerings of their courses to enable Universities to provide special cutting-edge content for their students. This helps students to add-on the emerging skill areas to their baseline degrees. One such example is Coursera who has developed a special offering for university campuses called ‘Coursera for Campus’ (C4C). One of the early adopters of this offering was Manipal Academy of Higher Education (Deemed University). The case study of this relationship and its outcomes follows: –

Case Study

CHALLENGE AREA FOR THE UNIVERSITY

Enabling a learning environment for students to keep up with the latest skills

In a world which is experiencing an agglomeration of factors such as industry 4.0, digital technologies and sustainability shaping its near- and long-term future, liberal education is expected to empower individuals and prepare them to deal with complexity and constant change. It provides students with a broad knowledge of the wider world (e.g. science, culture,and society) as well as in-depth study in specific areas of interest. Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE) intended to create such an environment in its campus where students can pursue their personal and career aspirations along with their formal education. This was indeed progressive thinking by the University as to how to maintain the currency of content in a 3 to 4-year degree program.

MAHE chose to create a multi-disciplinary learning environment which made it possible for a student from a non-computer science background to pursue data science or for a doctoral student to pursue music. They wanted to enable an option for students to pursue learning in areas of their passion apart from their current degree program. They could also embellish their degree with add-on super-specialized emerging areas, leading to better employability.

PARTNERSHIP SOLUTION

Blending classroom learning with Coursera courses

MAHE wanted to partner with a learning provider who could provide relevant content from world-class institutions and blend it with expert pedagogy and technology that lets students learn anytime, anywhere. Therefore, Coursera came with a solution which evolved into ultimately C4C.

Coursera partnered with MAHE to develop a program with three objectives:

  1. To provide learning across different disciplines to over 20,000 students studying at various institutes under MAHE Manipal
  2. To provide an opportunity for faculty members to upskill and reskill across various domains
  3. To provide for-credit learning at different schools and colleges

This relationship provided an opportunity for their students to choose amongst the thousands of courses available on Coursera. As the Coursera platform has courses at all levels — beginner, intermediate, advanced as well as Specializations which make it convenient for students to embed courses at an appropriate level and earn credits.

OUTCOMES

Multiple outcomes emerged for various stakeholders of the university including the teachers and the students.

MAHE defined the success of this program based on each of the key stakeholders — the University, the faculty and the students.

The University management was looking to provide an environment in which students were able to learn what they want to learn. The faculty members wanted an opportunity to blend the quality content available online with the curriculum in the classroom. For students it was important to address questions such as-are they able to get an internship of their choice, are they able to pursue a career of their choice and are they able to get a job when they graduate?

The Coursera program for Manipal has helped meet the objectives of these stakeholders.

Over 69,000 courses have been enrolled in by students and faculty members across various campuses of Manipal Group. Nearly 70 courses have been inducted into the blended learning pedagogy for-credit. Almost 200,000 hours of learning has happened via this program making it one of the largest learning programs on Coursera. The students found that Coursera content has made a positive career impact for them.

They have learned and acquired skills that they couldn’t acquire otherwise and have thoroughly appreciated the flexibility of the online learning process.

(Source: Coursera India Private Limited)

Conclusion

Sensing the urgency of the imminent threat in the future job markets as well as the changed mindset of the upcoming generation, most countries are being forced to revisit their existing education policies and find measures to tackle the employability quotient. India is no different and the draft version of the new education policy (NEP) is a step in this direction. The policy attempts to address relevant changes required in the modern education system in the higher education segment and keeping in view with the emerging needs of Industry 4.0. A paradigm shift is suggested by it which places a great emphasis on online education as well as MOOCs. The policy recommends how online learning can be made integral to mainstream education. This indeed is a heartening step for the country.

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University 4.0 https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/university-4-0/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 05:21:30 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1779

Are Cyborg Universities coming soon?

Universities and colleges world over are struggling to find the ways to attract new students in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic. Several of them have extended their deadlines for accepting application and enrollment. A paradigm shift in the education about the value, price and program has become obvious in these days.

Many feel that the value of education has been substantially degraded, this is because in today’s consumerist world, education must lead to an employability outcome.

Education for sake of broadening one’s horizon and for learning is becoming passé. Students are forced to take a hard look at that the fee they are going to spend for any university degree vis-à-vis the return on investment (ROI).

Growing uncertainties regarding the filling up of seats giving a nightmare to academic administrators across the universities. This pandemic has disrupted the staid firmament of the education sector.

Are our universities are equipped to deal with the rapid change in the landscape of higher education?

Many educational experts agree to the fact that the world order of higher education is no longer going to be same as before. According to Professor Scott Galloway of NYU Stern School of Business, a major shift in the landscape of higher education is inevitable, as the giant tech companies such as Google, Facebook, Apple would necessitate partnership with the top elite universities around the world to offer degrees to students across the globe. Such partnership will enable these marquee institutions to expand enormously their student intake by offering hybrid online-offline degrees which are economically affordable while not compromising the value of their degree. He asserts that these associations will challenge the very existence of brick-and-mortar universities and eventually will replace most of these universities sooner or later.

Even though delivered mostly online, this imminent disruption will find more people to have access to a solid education never than before. The partnerships will make life easier for hundreds of millions of people. The face-to face system of learning that has evolved over centuries will be faded away.

People may wonder why the large technology companies, for example Apple should invest in a collaborative partnership with one of the Ivy League universities, say MIT. Answer is rather obvious because education is the next growth driver for such companies to move to next higher scale.

“These big-tech companies have to turn their eyes to new prey, the list of which gets pretty short pretty fast if you look at how big these industries need to be in that weight class. People ask if big tech wants to get into education and health care, and I say no, they must get into education and health care. They have no choice”. Professor Galloway argues.

This arrangement will lead to so-called “Cyborg Universities” a confluence of cyber-physical marriage of technology with brand and reputation of big-name red brick universities.

However, some academicians do not favour this argument that Google, Apple, and Microsoft will soon partner with top tier universities to corner the market on higher education and leave the remaining universities and colleges in the dust.

Counter Point

One such counter argument by a prolific blogger Pete in Medium says,

“I remain optimistic (that) on-campus education will return. The traditional role of college as a place for emotional development cannot be underscored enough. Entering a new social environment, without the baggage of your past has always been a critical part of development. It allows you to explore and discover what inspires you. Sure, some people are popular and confident no matter where they are, they know exactly what they want to do and never deviate. But those students are surely a minority, (and) do not always turn out successful, and are not necessarily someone you would want to spend time with. The in-person campus will continue to be a place where kids want to go, and parents will see value. Remote learning will hopefully attenuate the cost of education, but it will not result in an end to in-person education anytime soon. That’s my guess.”

Accelerated Adoption of Technology in Higher Education

The academic world is still in its nascent stages of remote learning and the ongoing pandemic will accelerate this technology enabled delivery of education. To optimize the enrollments, many universities have been revamping the pricing of on-campus degrees (traditionally more expensive) and online degrees/certifications (generally thought to be cheaper). In the emerging environment, there would be experimentation with hybrid model, implying credits of degrees can be earned partly on campus and partly through online methodology. The price point may also lie somewhere in-between.

In India, also the regulators (UGC) permitted up to 20% of courses to earn online. The New Education Policy has provisions to enable universities offer fully online degrees.

Currently, many established online course delivery platforms exist, like Coursera, edX, Udacity and in India home grown platforms like NPTEL and SWAYAM. These platforms constitute the segment of remote learning called MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses). Recently, Coursera has launched C4C (Coursera For Campus) initiative in India. Here, universities take bulk licenses from Coursera and their students can enroll for certain number of courses to earn credits towards their degree. This initiative became popular during the pandemic days as it was offered at no-cost to universities which helped them experiment with this way of learning.

 

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So, how the universities in India should prepare to stay valid and relevant in the digital disruption and radical change in the emerging teaching learning paradigm.

Evolution to University 4.0

Revolutionary change should be necessitated to sustain in the challenging years to come, and transformation into University 4.0 could be an appropriate description of the ways that universities around the world need to respond to the new economy.

Key Elements of University 4.0

The adoption of U4.0 concept would entail development of curriculum appropriate to skills needed for sustaining Industry 4.0 skill requirements. This will lead to development of curriculum 4.0. The pedagogy would transform to education 4.0 to imbibe concepts of digital teaching learning incorporating the use of online resources. It would also lead to co-creation of knowledge and innovation.

Key to this a development of a digital platform for teaching learning which incorporates technologies such as AR/VR and AI&ML based adaptive learning so that today’s digital natives get exemplary student experience.

Distinctive learning models catering to multidisciplinary programs, such as adoption of flexible education and HBO (hybrid-blended-online) model are the imperative in this concept. Flexible education offers more efficient educational delivery model, provides marketing advantage as distinctiveness, may attract more enrollments thereby meeting requirement of today’s students who need more individuality of time, place and mode of study and widens the access of HE through Flexible Delivery Mode. Adoption of full-blown Choice Based Credit System (CBCS), Be-Spoke Degrees, MOOC Integration and Experiential Learning are to be carefully curated in the modern teaching learning experience.

With wide-ranging developments in technology and its disruptive influence on emerging models of higher education it is matter of time when University 4.0 will morph into Cyborg Universities, the shape and form only time will tell.

“We need technology in every classroom and in every student and teacher’s hand, because it is the pen and paper of our time, and it is the lens through which we experience much of our world.” — David Warlick

Author: Dr. Parag Diwan is a noted academic leader and has many large institution building projects to his credit. Currently, he works with multiple universities to make the higher education relevant to today’s digital economy.

 
 
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Why there is a Need to Reinvent Engineering Education? https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/why-there-is-a-need-to-reinvent-engineering-education/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 05:08:59 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1776

 

 

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The world has progressed through many eras of industrial revolution. Beginning in 1784, when the steam engine was harnessed by the invention of the steam engine by the Scottish Inventor, James Watt, to the current age of Industrial Revolution 4.0, where cyber-physical systems are coming to the fore. All this is thanks to the enormous efforts of engineers who have led several of these advances and thereby laid the foundation of the global economy.

Many of today’s technologies and products have at least some element of creativity involved in their creation, paving the way for people to lead long, rewarding, and secure lives. In today’s rapidly evolving engineering landscape, we have an increased obligation to transform the undergraduate educational experience from the traditional pedantic curriculum in explicit disciplines to a broader foundational experience for life-long success.

 

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Today, the engineering education landscape is impacted by VUCA (volatile, unpredictable, chaotic and ambiguous) forces. This has widened the gap between the changing avenues of employment and the existing structure of engineering education. Although 25 percent of world’s engineers are in India, statistics reveal that just 20 percent of our engineering graduates are hired by existing businesses. Engineering is among the few professions in which creativity and innovation plays a vital role in its practice. The lack of creativity and innovation skills are what generally pushes these engineers to fall behind in the employability quotient.

“Engineering is among the few professions in which creativity and innovation plays a vital role in its practice”.

Studies further reveal that only 3.84 percent of the India’s engineers have the scientific, cognitive and linguistic abilities needed for entry-level information technology jobs. In fields that are thriving today, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, data science and mobile growth, only 3 percent of engineers have new-age technology skills. Therefore, only 1.7% of engineers have the expertise needed to work in jobs in the modern century. It has been identified that there are few more reasons which are attributed to India’s engineers’ poor employability; only 40 percent of engineering graduates do an internship, while only 7 percent of students do several internships. In addition to a shortage of internships, since only 36 percent do experiential learning tasks beyond their academic programme leading to non-development of cognitive and innovations skills. Thus, in essence they do not develop solve problems skills.

Another difficulty leading to the poor employability of engineers is that the subject is taught in colleges in a very technical way; 60% of professors do not speak about the implementation of concepts in the industry and only 47% of engineers attend some business discussion.

The number of engineers in the US who know how to code is approximately four times that of Indian engineers, statistics reveal. There are also many other variables in terms of the soft skills that make Indian engineers so seriously unemployable through industries.

Several engineering schools in our country impart education with little practical experience and no concept of creativity or innovation instilled. This is obvious from the fact that the Indian engineering institutions, with a few exceptions, are still struggling to establish a place in the world order.

 

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Therefore, a paradigm shift in the engineering education is important. The shift is from teacher-centered to student-centered teaching-learning systems, content-based education to outcome-based education, employability enhancing skills, instructors to facilitators, conventional engineering disciplines to interdisciplinary classes, chalk and board (lecture-based) technology-driven learning.

Today, only strong values or knowledge are not enough to survive the techno-entrepreneurial boom. Innovative effects must be obtained by engineers with a much larger cross-disciplinary manner. Countries like US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and Singapore are much more advanced and practical oriented than Indian universities, in terms of imparting engineering education. With their highly practical curriculum, they develop basic technological skills of their graduates to prove their value.

Therefore, we need engineers to turn concepts into practice in an advanced technical environment. Our engineers should be trained to create solutions to the world’s toughest engineering problems by incorporating the applications of the concepts of mathematics and science.

Under the wide variety of disciplines of engineering category, no matter what the interest of the prospective students are, one or other facets of engineering discipline will enthuse them to move on the path of becoming an engineer. If you want to it is civil, electrical, chemical or mechanical engineering, the engineering field has a place for you whether you want to tinker, develop, design or construct.

Civil Engineering: Civil engineers have one of the best tasks in the world. Setting up the standard of life. Civil engineers set up, develop, construct and run the structures required for trendy civilization with technological and creative expertise, ranging from highways and bridges to sewage treatment plants and energy-efficient houses. It is the duty of civil engineering to construct rational transport networks of consistency, such as roads, airports, rail lines, ocean ports, etc. A civil engineer is concerned with deciding the right form for these structures and looking at the building process once, so that after completion, the durability of these structures is ensured. Additionally, these systems should be adequate in terms of convenience for the general population. In fact, no field of existence that does not require the contribution of civil engineering can be found.

Electrical Engineering: What would have done if we did not have electricity? In today’s appliance laden world, electrical engineering applications are ubiquitous. The electrical engineer gives us the ability to harness energy that has eased our lives. Electrical engineering covers areas such as electricity engineering, network engineering, network engineering, supervisory control and data processing, robots, software engineering, control system engineering, etc. To achieve this, electrical engineers are responsible for computer technology and design, turbines, transmitting devices, navigation systems, wiring and lighting, electronic device architecture. In making sure the project is safe, a smart electrical engineer plays an important role.

Mechanical Engineering: Throughout the industrial revolution, the invention of advanced machines and their usage led to mass production of goods which also contributed to the exponential growth of mechanical engineering. The jobs in mechanical engineering concentrate on developing inventions that meet human needs. In modern life, nearly any goods or service has undoubtedly been touched in some form by a mechanical engineer to assist humanity. In addition, technology itself has influenced how mechanical engineers work and the suite of software has also become very strong in recent decades. In mechanical engineering, mechanical engineers use software such as fluid mechanics, computer-aided designs with long component analysis. Researchers evaluate the right processes within the sector in order to generate incremental economic activity.

Computer Science Engineering: Also, an increased demand has been generated for computer science engineers with the introduction of information technology and related advancement of computer hardware and applications. This discipline is much more than learning to code. The benefits go beyond knowing a particular programming language. It teaches students about logic, understanding systems and engineering and design basics, all of which are applicable to other academic and career fields.

Historically, engineers took pride in constructing concrete bridges and finding alternate energy sources for sustainable development of the world. But now, the world of virtual effects and cyber-physical systems, it is more that computer science graduates rule the roost.

To revive the core branches, we need to rejuvenate them by creating new specialisms within their broader framework such as Civil Engineering with Smart Cities, Electrical Engineering with IoT and Mechanical Engineering with Additive Manufacturing, Robotics, Automation and so on.

Training of engineering should be capable of inspiring graduates with more than just a deep knowledge of science and technology. To overcome our planet’s hardest challenges, the engineering education should also cultivate independent thinking, powerful communicators, and empathetic and innovative leaders.

“Without having a holistic view of digital technologies and a humanistic approach to addressing real-life challenges, one would never expect to be a new technology pioneer”.

The curriculum, therefore, should embark on unlearning certain old patterns such as rote learning and learn new skills and mindsets. These could be interdisciplinary thought, imaginative mentality, teamwork ability. The curriculum should excite students rekindling their natural qualities such as enthusiasm, questioning abilities and of course their creativity. The curriculum should encourage to develop the basic technical, social and humanistic understanding that every student should have at its core. It should also incorporate the students’ quest for discovery and an increased active role in choosing his path. A faculty adviser could be consulted for opting of a major. Subsequently, pick a real-world problem area of student’s interest. Once the student gains enough depth in the topic, he could concentrate on developing deep proficiency in an field. This will not only create in depth knowledge, but also developing the right skill sets to build impactful solutions. The learners would be able to connect the dots through wide-ranging combination of classes at the intersection of technology, sciences, and liberal arts.

For instance, a curriculum with a core in AI students get to learn, create and apply latest machine-learning models in real-life problems — like, identifying diseases-ridden crops through images etc. But the learning should not stop at AI or ML. There must have another layer on top of the AI wherein either Design Thinking or System Thinking can be taught through class activities, which include relentless hours of brainstorming, prototyping and presentations. This would help the learners to understand problems through a user’s point of view.

Keeping in view of the Industry 4.0 revolution, we can think of creating an undergraduate engineering program with Liberal Studies foundation, a strong core of Engineering and Digital Economy expertise. Suggested curricular design should follow the paradigm of blending liberal studies with engineering curricula, rather than bridging, to produce engineering graduates with a broadened horizon.

Some components that may be embedded include Critical Thinking, Historical Perspective, Public Policy, Art Appreciation, Elements of Social and Applied Psychology, and Literature. Exposure to such courses will provide engineering graduates a framework to think more broadly outside the narrow confines of engineering studies and develop abilities to think about and deal with the increasingly VUCA world;in line with need of industry to have “Global, Liberal, Cerebral” graduates. Such engineers will be adept at a global stage with liberal instincts that ingrain in them an intellectual curiosity and cerebral approach to ‘think bigger’ and ‘connect the dots’ in different situations.

Given below a suggested a model that merges liberal studies with engineering education in a way that teaches engineering graduates to think critically and analytically and also provides them with digital economy specific skills.

 

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We conclude our discussion on reinventing engineering education with a take on survival of the fittest from the book ‘The Signal and The Noise” by Nate Silver, which states that human have few natural defenses. “We are not all that fast, and we are not all that strong. We do not have claws or fangs or body armor. We cannot spit venom. We cannot camouflage ourselves. And we cannot fly. Instead, we survive by means of our wits. Our minds are quick. We are wired to detect patterns and respond to opportunities and threat without much hesitation” (Silver 2012). Our goal is to develop future engineers that are quick witted and adaptable so that they not only survive but succeed and thrive in the VUCA world.

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Online Education: Teachers Need to Become Facilitators https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/online-education-teachers-need-to-become-facilitators/ Mon, 07 Dec 2020 04:52:42 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1772 Emergence of Online Education as a Post Pandemic Effect

The discussions and deliberations about online education mostly centered around the technology’s experience and accessibility issues, but during this dialogue, the emerging pedagogy and its features went unnoticed.

The traditional pedagogy, which had hitherto remained largely unchanged despite the technological innovations, have been radically transformed as a post pandemic outcome resulting from the necessity of keeping an access to education through e-learning and online mechanism.

This new pedagogy is being evolved through a continuous process which is making both our teachers and students constantly adapting to this new way of delivering and receiving education.

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In this era of e-learning, this evolving pedagogy will help us to realize the new possibilities and complexities. If we consider the delivery of knowledge through digital devices and the internet as the hallmarks of e-learning, then self-paced learning is its enduring nature. Although it is not always evident in the more familiar hybrid (a combination of online and offline models) learning.

Therefore, digital, and autonomous learning needs to be looked at more seriously and without being misled by the awe of technology.

Self-Paced Learning Helps Different Learnability Quotient of Students

Self-paced learning is generally the practice of learning in an environment where the learner sets his or her schedule and adjusts it to his or her convenience and interest. The learner decides how long a lesson will take and how often to sit down and study it. Generally, the institutions or teachers are not involved in this process. While using the features of digital technology, the content of the lesson is accessible to the learner at any place and any time of his choice.

In the traditional learning system, the number of hours of teaching per lesson is limited by a predetermined schedule, from what day, at what time, to ancillary activities and assessments. Students are obliged to complete the learning process accordingly. Students who fail to complete these steps successfully according to the academic calendar will be considered a failure.

But, in self-paced learning methods, reasons of failure due to inadequacy of time is rare and often improbable.

Redefinition of the Role of Teachers

The self-paced learning method may not be reduced only to the learners’ control-over-the -timing of the learning process. The general perception about the framework of education will be radically changed both the course as well as the direction.

It is important to note that online and digital models create not just a learning activity but also a broader learning environment.

In all offline learning systems, teachers are the ultimate authority. Obedience to authority is determined by the experience of the study as well as the outcome of the examination. In a teacher-centric model, where teachers ‘authoritatively’ impart knowledge and humble students accept it without question. In the exercise of pedagogical power is often unilaterally set time limits. All deadlines apply to a class as a whole. It is not practical for many people to allow different time limits for each lesson, depending on their learning abilities or physical or mental circumstances. Then students who must ask for more time in any particular situation will thereby re-strengthen the ‘authority’ of the teachers.

Fundamentally, in the self-paced learning method, the teacher-centered power structure will be destabilized. In e-learning, teachers relinquish the right to make final decisions about ‘time’ to the student thereby give up excessive powers and become facilitators of the learning process. However, this transition should not be seen as a shortcoming, but as an improvement in teachers’ overall responsibility.

The role of teachers, which used to be limited to taking classes and conducting exams, is now shifting to taking full responsibility for the overall effectiveness of a course. The redistribution of authority in the academic sphere is not a no-confidence motion against teachers, whereas a new mutual understanding of the responsibility that the student must assume for himself/herself. In self-paced learning, the student experiences greater responsibility and flexibility. Teachers who reject excessive authority and students who take more responsibility for their learning will be the starting point for a healthier academic environment, which will enable comprehensive change.

Multi-modal Learning Processes

The most striking difference in self-paced learning is that it positively utilizes the diversity of students’ learning abilities. Each student will grasp things at his speed. Because of the different tastes, each student responds differently to different parts of the same subject. For example, a student who learns the application of mechanics quickly may take longer to understand concepts of strength of materials. When all students are forced to learn all the lessons at the same pace and through the same activities in the traditional way of learning, some go on without understanding the subject and some without understanding at all. But, in the case of self-paced learning, each student takes time and chooses the most appropriate approach from the available learning methods. Not only can the student change the pace of learning according to his ability to comprehend, but he/she can also choose the appropriate one from the various learning resources and interact more meaningfully with the subject.

For example, the introduction to a new topic could be a music video, a pdf of a research paper, an experiment, or a group activity. In the traditional learning method, all learners are compelled to do one or two of these within a specified time. But in the self-paced learning method, the student can choose and take advantage of all the possibilities available to him. Teachers can be multi-directional in many ways, incorporating a wide variety of learning materials and related activities into each learning environment. The general nature of self-paced learning is to open up all avenues for accessing and behaving in the text accordingly, based on the basic premise that each learner is of a different type. The pace of learning is determined by the learner, which also means that the study separates itself from its traditional order and narrow environment. The learner can choose another time to concentrate instead of a noisy time and use a more comfortable open space instead of a closed classroom. One can watch the rest of the lesson on laptop or TV at home, then watch it on mobile phone while traveling by bus and repeat the required modules in between other activities. Here, the learning process is freed from the limitations of physical conditions.

Reformulating the Examinations

The possibility of rethinking the examination procedures will also become evident in this case. The present method of examination, which is generally a memory test of past lessons to be completed in each time, will become irrelevant in e-learning. It is because, in the self-paced learning, the student is asked to self-evaluate after he/she has spent the required amount of time in each lesson. Instead of taking a quiz on that subject, one needs to use more scenario-based modelling assessment tools to find out if the knowledge has been acquired and how the student will apply it in a particular situation. This will make the study and the exam more complementary and the learning process more productive.

Key Challenges

  • Given the potential for self-paced learning, it cannot be considered an effective, innovative model for all learning needs. Self-paced learning methods have many limitations in primary education. In the self-paced environment mentioned earlier, the additional responsibility that the learner must assume cannot be handled by young children. This means that different self-paced learning models will be required at various levels, ranging from primary to higher education.
  • Another limitation of the self-paced learning approach has been the difficulty of having multiple learners in the same class (cohort) at different stages of learning at the same time. This can make the learner anxious to spend more time on one module and those who complete the same module faster can become lazy. Unbalanced learning levels can also confuse the facilitator.

However, with imaginative intervention, the situation can be put to good use. Those who want to complete the module can activate their learning through peer learning from those who have already completed it. The effectiveness of ‘peer learning’ has already been proven one and widely accepted. In addition to making a positive difference in learning, it can also lead to improved mutual understanding and teamwork. Those who have completed the module can perform other related activities besides peer teaching. Thus, if the framework of the old classroom is changed, the learning environment will be enhanced, and different possibilities will be opened for each.

  • Also, we know that the e-learning cannot be used for all subjects. Many subjects can be studied effectively only through fieldwork, public interface, and experiments. Moreover, learning in a completely virtual environment is not a complete model, even for subjects that do not seem to require such offline lessons. Some subjects must be studied in their natural living environment. There are no alternatives to direct interaction between individuals.

So, what are the vast possibilities of self-paced learning as a pedagogy?

The hybrid model that we are now adopting mostly works by running one part of the curriculum through the traditional classroom method and the other part through e-learning / online classes. As indicated earlier, learning models that adopt a completely virtual approach do not have a universal character. So, the hybrid model can be continued with appropriate amendments in it.

Reason being that the current hybrid models are (almost always) shaped by the principles of classroom learning. For instance, take attendance before an online class, even set a timetable to watch a previously recorded classroom video, and send a photo of homework via WhatsApp etc).

Many of the possibilities mentioned earlier that open-up the pedagogy of self-paced learning can be effectively incorporated into the hybrid model.

Additionally, we should explore the possibility of innovative pedagogy by giving learners the right to self-determination at different time points in a course, applying new assessment models, providing a variety of learning resources, and promoting peer learning. Else, as long as the pedagogy of classroom learning remains at the centre of the hybrid model, the potential for e-learning will greatly be limited and we would miss the opportunity to address the inadequacies of the old learning methods.

The first step in taking advantage of this opportunity is for teachers to abandon the mace of power.

The academic world must then take on the responsibility and move into the broader role of facilitator without any sense of insecurity and to explore the possibilities of transforming the structure of learning in an atmosphere of collective responsibility and mutual trust. Yes, another teaching is possible!

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Triple Spectre that Haunts Indian EV Policy https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/triple-spectre-that-haunts-indian-ev-policy/ Thu, 05 Apr 2018 10:56:09 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1760 After setting an audacious goal of having 100% electric mobility by 2030, as announced by India’s Minister of Transportation in September 2017, we now find a situation of “electrifying confusion” regarding the goal post.

At the government level, different people are making contradicting statements and as always is the case in this country, that clear policy direction does not emerge.

Obviously, the lack of unified thinking among the government circle is quite visible when the Transport Minister says in January 2018 that the Electric Vehicle (EV) policy has been drafted by Niti Aayog and was awaiting for the cabinet approval. Then, he backtracks from this statement, a month later, saying that as such there was no need for EV policy. As a rejoinder, Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog suggests that India needs an EV policy, though the priority should be onto two-wheeler and public transportation. He further opines that as a nation our focus should be on this larger segment of electric mobility and not focus on cars.

There is more to this issue than meets the eye. In fact, the underlying issues for such backtracking and confusion seems to be the “Triple Spectre” which haunts India’s electric mobility odyssey.

Let us briefly look into these three factors.

  1. The Reality of Abatement of Carbon Footprint

Electric vehicles reduce pollution only if a high percentage of the electricity mix comes from renewable sources and if the battery manufacturing takes place at a site far from the vehicle use region. Industries which will emerge due to increased electric vehicle adoption may also cause additional air pollution.

One of the primary aspects of the audacious goal set for electric mobility was to deliver multiple co-benefits implying improved environment, energy security and renewable integration. Therefore, there is an imperative that there should be a domestic EV policy to improve competitiveness of electric vehicles.

“India can save 64% of anticipated passenger road-based mobility-related energy demand and 37% of carbon emissions in 2030 by pursuing a shared, electric, and connected mobility future”, according to a Niti Aayog-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) report.

In a paper published by some IIM Ahmadabad researchers build various scenarios of EVs penetration. In a “business-as-usual” scenario, the overall transportation energy requirements increases nearly six fold between 2010 and 2050. The overall dependence on fossil fuels continues despite some diversification towards natural gas and bio-fuels. However, after 2020, electricity starts emerging as significant option, based on transportation for intercity passengers, freight movements, implementation of metro projects and diffusion of EVs (buses, cars, two/three wheelers). As per this model, the share of EVs in overall electricity demand rises from about 54% in 2020 to 67% in 2050.

In case of aggressive penetration of EV scenario, the overall demand of energy is lower because of the fact that EVs are more energy efficient. However, with addition of Low Carbon Society (LCS implies a global stabilization target of 2°C for global warming) coupled with EVs scenario, the energy demand further reduces. These are presented in the Figure 2 below:

It also means that if we have to achieve LCS goals, it is imperative that India’s EV policy document (as and when developed) must mandate use of renewable energy resources for charging of electric vehicles.

This would also help Indian renewable energy generation companies who are developing about 175 GW capacity including 100 GW from solar by 2022. Essentially, the fates of solar power and EVs in India are intertwined, provided that EVs have batteries that can offer a storage solution to India’s clean energy push.

Solar power generated during the day needs to be stored in batteries. The storage capability of EV batteries could help with grid balancing. This may mitigate a perceived risk that EV charging would lead to intermittent surge in electricity demand. Unless battery based storage facilities are created, there is a possibility of breakdown of India’s already stretched electricity distribution networks.

As seen in all the three cases presented by IIM scholars that EVs would lead to fresh demand for electricity. In fact, this could be a boon to our entire power sector as currently the lack of demand is weighing down the sector. Any uptake in demand for power will help improve the financial viability of currently stressed power sector projects.

Therefore, government is under dilemma whether to have a policy document that mandates only use of renewable energy for EV charging or to have those currently stressed power assets also have a play. Certainly, it is a tough decision to make. If the currently stressed power stations (which are largely fossil fuel based) get a play, then the role of reduction of carbon footprint would not be achieved for a country that still produces 75% of its electricity needs through fossil fuels.

Some may argue that the introduction of EVs would simply move the pollution of city roads to its hinter lands where power is generated.

  1. Impact on India’s Auto-component Industry

The Indian auto-component industry has experienced healthy growth over the last few years. It has grown to reach a level of Rs 2.92 lakh crore (US$ 43.52 billion) in FY 2016–17 and is further expected to grow by 8–10 % in FY 2017–18. As per an estimate by the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), the Indian auto-components industry is likely to reach a turnover of US$ 100 billion by 2020 backed by strong exports.

The auto-component industry accounts for almost 7 % of India’s GDP and employs as many as 25 million people, both directly and indirectly. A stable government framework, increased purchasing power, large domestic market, and an ever increasing development in infrastructure has made this possible.

Currently, the auto-component industry is deeply worried about the rapid transformation of the industry, i.e, from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs. Deeply concerned, ACMA represented to Niti Aayog in December 2017. The key points they lobbied were the current and project industry investments and the massive job losses. These are some of things that this country can ill afford. Therefore, government should take a more calibrated approach in quest of its rapid propagation drives for EVs to provide time to the industry to transit to making components and sub-assemblies or for this new segment of vehicles.

The industry’s plea seems to be genuine, given the fact that internal combustion engines which are used in most cars, have more than 2,000 moving parts, while an EV has about only 20, resulting in fewer breakdowns. Among the parts whose demand will dry up once EVs dominate in India are, the engines, transmission, aluminum castings, cylinder blocks and cast iron. The graphic below shows that taken together these constitute almost 50% of the industry. Such components will be replaced by electric motors which will run by batteries.

Yet another anxiety being expressed by the industry is that the ICE power-train contributes to over 60% of the employment generation in the auto component sector, and that a switch to 100% electric could impact up to 5.6 million jobs by 2025–26.

Following the global trend, the Indian auto-components industry is likely to follow OEMs in adoption of EV technologies. The global move towards EVs will generate new opportunities for automotive suppliers. The mass conversion to EVs may generate a US$ 300 billion domestic market for EV batteries in India by 2030.

The emergence of electric vehicles means a new ecosystem will have to be built and a lot of component manufacturers will have to adapt and transform to make the appropriate components and sub-assemblies for EVs.

As far as the adoption of EV technology is concerned, Indian automotive industry currently lags behind to its global peers by 7–8 years. This also a cause of concern, as it may erode competitive advantage of our local component industry, significantly.

Given the fact that this industry contributes substantially to GDP and job growth, it very preeminently is the poster boy of Indian manufacturing story. On one hand, the government is propagating various initiatives such as Make in India with an outlook to improve the employability opportunities for young population. On the other, they want rapid proliferation of EVs to meet the global targets of carbon footprint mitigation. To balance these opposing necessities, SIAM (Society for Indian Automobile Manufactures) has, in concurrence with the Niti Aayog come up with a via media that 40% of vehicles in India would be shifted to electric while vehicles used for public transport would be 100% shifted to electric by 2030.

This is another behind-the-scene issue that makes government diffident in bringing out a definitive policy on EVs. They are likely wait till checks and balances between two opposing key initiatives are thought through.

  1. Threat of Electronic Components Import Bill exceeding the Petroleum Import Bill

A major thought process behind India’s ambitious target of 100% electric mobility is to drastically reduce the crude oil import bill. According to a Niti Aayog-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) report, adoption of EVs would result in a reduction of 156 Mtoe in diesel and petrol consumption by 2030. At $52/bbl of crude, this would imply a net savings of roughly Rs 3.9 lakh crore (approximately $60 billion) in that year.

The writings is on the wall — as with emerging technology, battery costs will continue to decline as manufacturing and the chemistry improves. Oil companies can reduce costs, but commodities do not see costs decline in the same way. Finite natural resources see costs rise as they become scarcer. The possibility that oil remains cheap indefinitely would only be because EVs destroy demand. As per a Bloomberg’s estimate, the EVs could capture 35 percent of the market by 2040, which would displace 13 mb/d.

All this is fine in principle, but the following data, as per the ICICI Securities report, shows a very disturbing trend for India.

As per the above graph, petroleum products by far constitute the largest segment of India’s import bill. But, it is predicted to change soon as electronic goods bill will surpass the oil bill by 2020.

This is because, India is one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world with an estimated size of US$69.6 billion in 2012. With a CAGR of 24%, it is expected to surpass the US$400 billion mark by 2020. However, sharp growth in demand for electronic goods is unlikely to translate to higher domestic production, which is currently at US$32.7 billion and likely to cross US$104 billion by 2022. While the domestic industry will cater to only a fourth of this demand, India will still need to import goods worth US$300 billion, roughly equivalent to the country’s oil import bill. Till 2015, electronics imports at US$37 billion were the third highest import item next only to crude and gold.

Now, India is staring at an import nightmare of an unprecedented rise in proportion of electronic goods that can push the country into a spiral of high imports. This would necessarily entail higher external and internal borrowings and does not bode well for India’s economy in the long term.

India’s electronic goods production was inadequate to meet demand due to deficiency in skill level to compete with imported products. Hence, to meet the rising demand, India is heavily dependent on import of electronics goods from China, US and other South East Asian regions. If we dig deep, the main reason behind the rising import of electronic goods is shortfall in domestic production. Local production faces a substantial cost disadvantage constraining investment in plants and equipment, technology absorption, development capability and innovation.

There is a possibility of double whammy surrounding India’s EV program.This is because India does not have enough lithium reserves for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries. This could lead to a substantial change in the country’s energy security priorities, with securing lithium supplies, a key raw material for EV batteries, becoming as important as buying oil and gas fields overseas. So, on one hand the gains in reduction of oil import bill may get supplanted by securing lithium supply. On the other hand, in immediate run, the lithium batteries would again be imported from China and South Asian countries, leading to further bloating of India’s electronic good import bill.

Indian auto ancillary firms are worried about the EV story going the solar module way with most solar power developers sourcing modules and equipment from countries such as China, where they are cheaper.

The lack of battery manufacturing in India is a real problem. If India is not able to get its act together quickly enough to get into the manufacturing of all these new sunrise industries associated with EV ecosystem. Even on batteries, the same thing is going to happen. Already, China is making massive investments at massive scales, and we are still contemplating on it.

The delay in the EV policy is also possibility due to the fact to first get Electronics Manufacturing Policy in place to access from global networks of innovations and productions. This may result in indigenisation of sub-assemblies and key components for EVs. Over the years, local manufacturers faced barriers in the form of restrictive regulations and a largely poor implementation of past policies, which stymied investments in plants and equipment, technology absorption and innovations. This could be attributed to high cost of finance at 11–13% (cost of fund) against 2–4% globally, high power cost due to irregular power supply, etc. This, coupled with higher tax imposed by the Indian government, makes manufacturing of electronic products unviable in the country. All this has to change to make sure that the EV components (batteries, electric motors, electronic control modules) are made in India which will provide not only an alternative to auto ancillary industry, but also help in containing the electronic imports.

Conclusion

The slow down on getting the EV policy out is based on the fact that simultaneously India’s policy makers have to address issues that pertain to:-

1. Manage the reduction in carbon footprint by having calibrated introduction of renewable energy in charging infrastructure

2. Address the issues that are raised by auto ancillary industry through a gradual approach in introduction of EVs, so that the industry has reaction time to acquire the technology and build the production facilities to services OEMs entering into EV manufacturing.

3. Alleviate the lopsidedness of the electronic manufacturing in this country and providing fillip for manufacturing of batteries and other components in India, rather than resorting to massive imports.

 

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Crowded World of Crowd Funding https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/crowd-funding/ Tue, 27 Mar 2018 12:03:46 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1749 Over the last few years, crowdfunding has become an increasingly popular option worldwide for both entrepreneurs and investors. Crowdfunding is a term dealing with the process of raising funds from anyone or specifically from a group (crowd) of individuals to be invested it in a new product or service idea.

The process of crowdfunding has provided entrepreneurs with an avenue to actualize their innovative ideas by getting startup funds.

Definition of Crowdfunding

Getting deeper into the crowd-funding proposition, it is simply a way in which small portions of capital is gathered from a group of individuals or a large number of individuals, with the aim to finance a whole new entrepreneurial journey. This process has become quite popular among the new generation entrepreneurs, because of the easy accessibility and reach through the modern communication medium of social media and the Internet. Some of the champions of crowd funding are websites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo, which help the budding entrepreneurs by aggregating funds from amongst its donor base.  To date cumulatively they have raised USD13.6 billion as estimated in January 2018 and this figure is growing.

Essentially, crowdfunding platform provides the convenience in finding a new venture fund or obtaining an investment, for investors or entrepreneurs.

Brief History of Crowdfunding

Historically, it was in the US the crowdfunding started dating back to the 19th century. Case in point is that in 1885, when government sources failed to provide funding to build a monumental base for the Statue of Liberty, a newspaper-led campaign attracted small donations from 160,000 donors to crowd fund it,

In the recent times, it was only in 1997 that the first very successful crowd funded project happened. It was initiated by a British rock band, who called in funds through the online medium required for their reunion tour. Most of their fans pooled in, and the financing proved extremely successful. However, it was in 2000 that the first crowdfunding website called ArtistShare came in to existence as a dedicated platform paving way for the modern leaders to follow.

With passage of time, crowdfunding slowly established itself as a popular choice among individuals to validate their business ideas, getting exposure, and garnering funds for them. The crowdfunding industry came in as a silent revolution. Its growth, in terms of raising funds, almost tripled in course of just two years from USD530 million in 2009 to USD1.5 billion in 2011, and since then it keeps on growing.

While a massive transition came in the aspect of crowdfunding with the launch of first crowd funding platform “The Fundable” platform in 2012. It created a whole new avenue for entrepreneurs to fund their ideas. It also created the new genre of equity crowdfunding. It was a huge innovation in itself. The tremendous success of Kickstarter and Indiegogo are a testament to the platform concept of crowdfunding.

In India, the term crowdfunding is not new. For example, at Malabar in Kerala, the century old tradition of PanamPayattu (crowdfunding) prevails at its crudest form, as a popular method to collect money for startup a business, construction of houses, marrying off daughters, sending children to abroad for job seeking or even higher-studies or other dire financial needs. Also, the places of worship are built using a large number of donations in many parts of India.

However, the concept of online crowdfunding is new to the country.

Types of online Crowdfunding

There are four distinct types of online Crowdfunding platforms. Each of which caters to different requirements and has its own pros and cons. These are broadly categorized as: rewards, equity, lending and donation.

  • Reward based Crowdfunding- This type is the most common form of crowdfunding today. In this method, there are rewards set at varying levels of the execution, dealing with tangible products and maintains a face to face connection with the client.
  • Equity Crowdfunding- Another popular form is equity crowdfunding. It revolves around the fact that an individual who funds can expect to receive a part of ownership in the organisation which is created through such fundraising. Hence, the company involved in the campaign sells a part of its equity to the members of the crowd who pitched in.
  • Donation based Crowdfunding– Donation or charity based form of crowdfunding is the extreme efforts of individuals in collection to help causes involved with charity. In this form the most common causes for which fund is raised are social and environmental.
  • Lending based Crowdfunding- Also known as debt based crowdfunding, this revolves around the fact of finding a group of individuals who will lend the money based on contract of repayment after passage of certain time.

Reward based crowdfunding: All or Nothing (AoN) and Keep it All (KiA)

All or Nothing is a form of fundraising in which the set objective is to draw a sum only and only if the desired amount of fund is raised or exceeded in given time frame. Whereas Keep It All is a form where the whole amount that is raised is kept without regard to the set fundraised target.

Generally, going by experience, campaigns following the Keep It All form has much more difficulty in reaching their goal because potential funders are worried about they achieving the goal on partial fundraise. Whereas, in All Or Nothing the fundraising goal is focused on embarking on project only if the set target is raised in a finite time as funders believe they are more likely to achieve their goal.

Investors and Crowd-funding!

Among the hundreds of projects launched based on crowd-funding, many of those are based on rewards mean that the investors themselves get the first chance to use product or services coming out of such startup. For example, a drone camera startup promised each investor in lieu of $600 one such devise ahead of general public.

On the other hand, equity based crowd-funding is subsequently making a great progress now, the reason being it allows the entrepreneurs to generate revenue through their products and services while still being in the control of the investors in the venture. As this aspect offers the investors an equity position, the equity based crowd-funding is considered to be a much more secure form of financing, and in the US is regulated by Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC).

Equity Crowdfunding and its potential

Equity Crowdfunding: To get a business off the ground or to provide it with capital to really grow, entrepreneurs have typically turned to outside investors. In this scenario, they sell a part of the equity of their business to an investor/s in return for their capital. Crowdfunding has its own version of this type of financing: equity crowdfunding. In this model, investors can invest as little as $500 sometimes to buy a small share in a business. Companies like AngelListOurCrowdSeedrs, and others are the leaders in this space.

Some of the benefits of Equity Crowdfunding are:

  • Larger amounts of money: When compared to other forms of crowdfunding, equity crowdfunding has the potential to raise larger sums of money. While that doesn’t always happen, the ticket size that investors need to subscribe are much larger than crowdfunding transactions seen in other forms like reward-based crowdfunding.
  • One customer/investor: The investors quickly become a group of people dedicated to making the venture successful and the entrepreneurs can rely on their crowd of investors for feedback, ideas during the early stage. As the venture moves forward, the investors are more likely to invest in future ventures.
  • Peer to Peer (P2P): Lending based crowdfunding allows entrepreneurs to raise funds in the form of loans that they will pay back to the lenders over a pre-determined timeline with a set interest rate.

Lending campaigns tend to take place over a shorter time span of around five weeks and works well for entrepreneurs who don’t want to give up equity in their startup immediately.


 

The top 5 Crowdfunded business campaigns

S.no Startup Venture Platform Amount Raised Time span
1 The Pebble E-Paper Watch Kikstarter $10.2 million 37 days
2 Ouya – an open-source gaming console Kickstarter $8.5 million 29 days
3 Pono Music – innovative listening experience Kickstarter $8.5 million 30 days
4 Bitvore – data analysis and monitoring Fundable $4,5 million 30 days
5 The Dash- first smart in-ear headphones Kickstarter $3,4 million 45 days

 

Kickstarter is the leader crowdfunding platform. Founded in 2009 in New York, it has funded more than 126,000 projects to date and raised more than $ 3 billion. It only offers crowdfunding by donation and has 13 categories: films, music, technology, fashion … It brings together a community of 13 million financiers around the world. The US platform charges a commission of 5% on projects and the average success rate is 35.8% in early 2017.

Crowdfunding in India

Crowdfunding is a very dynamic market in India. The crowdfunding paradigm has accelerated its speed and we see formal and professional structures in this space. The numbers are increasing year by year. Some young Indian entrepreneurs have created successful peer to peer (P2P) lending platform and equity crowdfunding platforms. The P2P lending model contributes to more than 70 percent of the total crowdfunding funding volume. In India, P2P lending model hold great potential to cause disruption in the banking sector. Seeing the sudden growth in the lending startups in India, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has recently regulated the P2P lenders as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

Some of India’s top crowdfunding platforms are namely Bitgiving, Catapooolt, Crowdera, DreamWallets, Faircent, FuelADream, FundDreamsIndia, Ignite Intent, Impact Guru, Ketto and the list is growing day by day.

However, crowdfunding in India is largely limited to donations and loans, because SEBI (Securities & Exchange Board of India) believes that most Indian lack the adequate knowledge of proper investing patterns and they require a disciplined knowledge about the proper functioning of crowd funding of equity in startups.

 

 

Conclusion

Therefore, the whole financial method of funding a project in context to modest contributions from a group of individuals gives life to an idea much more easily than seeking for sum of a substantial amount from a single investor or two. This has been proven in India as well, as the total transaction value on various crowdfunding platforms aggregated to USD8 million by Jan 2018. It is projected to grow on a CAGR of 28% during next 5 years.

To sum up with a quote of Ethan Mollick, a professor at Wharton very truly stated “the unique value of crowdfunding is not money, it is community”.

 

 

Reference Links:

 

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Battery is the new Oil! https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/battery-is-the-new-oil/ Wed, 07 Feb 2018 07:19:09 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1732 Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been around in various shapes and forms even before the advent of Internal Combustion (IC) vehicles. Nearly, 30% of all vehicles on the road were electric cars in that era, but the availability of cheap gasoline and inexpensive cars pushed research into better battery technology to the back burner.

It was not until the 1970s that interest in EVs got renewed, and the development of higher energy density batteries came to the research forefront. Recently, the battery technology has made mass-production electric cars a reality, thanks to the technology advancement. Still, EVs cannot just be made by replacing the engine and fuel tank by electric motors and electric batteries. It is an evolving technology driven to new heights by companies like Tesla, Nissan et al.

No doubt, the heart of an EV is its battery. Unlike the batteries in IC cars, which primarily serve to start the engine and run accessories like the lights, wipers, radio and/or ACs, the battery in an EV runs everything.

 

Importantly, it runs the electric motor, so it needs to be powerful and long-lasting enough to take drivers where they need to go with a minimum of recharging. Until recently, no reliable, mass-producible batteries were manufactured that could make electric cars competitive with IC cars. But, today EVs have not only become feasible, but they are now rolling off the assembly lines of major automobile manufacturers.

Historical Overview

Ever since the discovery of electricity, humans have sought to have simple yet portable source of current in form of a battery. Though, the challenge was that it had to balance; power, weight, cost, and some other factors. Scientists have worked for over a century to get to today’s level of battery efficiency which included many trade-offs. Highlighted below are some of the important milestones of this journey.

Major Milestones in Battery Development

Evolution of Batteries over the years for EV application

Several battery chemistries have been introduced including improved lead–acid, nickel–cadmium, nickel–zinc, NiMH, zinc–air, sodium–sulfur, sodium–metal chloride, Li-ion batteries in the EV segments.

The experimentation with battery chemistries is due to fact that, for EVs there are several factors that could affect battery choice, including cost. However, two factors that determine the fit and use of rechargeable batteries specifically are:

  1. Specific Energythe amount of energy a battery holds in total.
  2. Specific Powerthe amount of current a battery can supply for a given use.

It is depicted in the info-graphic below:

Reviewed below are some of the battery technologies being used in the EVs and the state-of-art, emerging technological development in the field.

Lead-acid

There are 2 types of lead-acid batteries, automobile engine starter batteries, and deep cycle batteries. Automobile alternators are designed to provide starter batteries high charge rates for fast charges, while deep cycle batteries used for electric vehicles like golf carts or e-rickshaws. Historically, most EVs have used lead-acid batteries due to their mature technology, high availability, and low cost.

Lead-acid batteries in EV applications end up being a significant (25–50%) portion of the final vehicle mass. Like all batteries, they have significantly lower energy density than fossil fuels — in this case, 30–40 Wh/kg. However, due to lighter drive-train in EV, higher weight of batteries is partly compensated. Still, with the best batteries EVs of a range comparable to IC vehicles tend to lead to higher weight. Recent advances in battery efficiency, capacity, materials, safety, toxicity and durability are likely to allow these superior characteristics to be applied in car-sized EVs.

Lead-acid batteries powered such early-modern EVs as the original versions of the EV1 and the RAV4 EV.

Due to further developments in EV application, VRLA batteries emerged. A valve-regulated lead-acid battery (VRLA battery) also called sealed lead-acid (SLA) battery. Another type of VRLA battery is the Gel and Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) types of VRLA which can be mounted in any orientation with minimal maintenance.

In India, most EVs are either three wheeled rickshaws or two wheeler. Both the segments are highly price sensitive.

The fact of the matter is that, in India, lead-acid takes the cake with its definite pricing edge. The initial cost of a lead-acid battery pack is much cheaper than its equitable lithium-ion battery (LIB) pack.

Although, the advantages of LIB may justify its price on many levels, the Indian consumer is wary of having to shell out this additional investment in the aforesaid segments.

Specially developed VRLA batteries for EVs application are widely available and are considered as a competitively priced product, the cost of initial purchase is affordable to an EV owner and in the long run, replacements are also favorable in terms of their price. Also, the lack of lithium-in India and the fact that lithium-ion technology for electric cars is a whole new territory and can’t be integrated into current manufacturing regimes.

NiCad battery

The nickel–cadmium batteries (NiCad) is a type of rechargeable battery using nickel oxide hydroxide and metallic cadmium as electrodes and were about 50% more energy dense than the lead-acid. NiCad batteries can be made in a wide range of sizes and capacities. Compared with other types of rechargeable cells, they offer good cycle life and performance at low temperatures with a fair capacity but their significant advantage is the ability to deliver practically their full rated capacity at high discharge rates (discharging in one hour or less). However, the materials are more costly than that of the lead–acid battery, and the cells have high self-discharge rates.

NiCad was state of the art batteries all through the 1990’s. They were used in quite a few EVs in France and US. However, the environmental impact of the disposal of the toxic metal cadmium has contributed to waning of this technology for EV applications.

Nickel Metal Hydride

The demise of NiCad batteries for EVs led to development of Nicket-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) batteries which are about 200% as energy-dense as lead-acid. These were first used by Toyota Prius and Honda Insight hybrid electric cars. However, an NiMH electric car battery pack would simply be too heavy to achieve range improvements.

NiMH batteries are now considered a relatively mature technology. While less efficient (60–70%) in charging and discharging than lead-acid, they have an energy density of 40–80 Wh/kg, far higher than lead-acid. When used properly, NiMH batteries can have exceptionally long lives, as has been demonstrated in their use in hybrid cars and surviving NiMH RAV4 EVs that still operate well after 100,000 miles (160,000 km) and over a decade of service.

 

NiMH battery used in the second generation EV-1 and worked very well. By 2008, more than two million hybrid cars worldwide were manufactured with NiMH batteries.

However, the status of NiMH batteries in EV segment diminished over time due to the increased popularity of lithium-ion batteries.

Li-ion battery

A lithium-ion battery (Li-ion/LIB) is a type of rechargeable battery in which lithium- ions move from the negative electrode to the positive electrode during discharge and back when charging. Li-ion batteries use an intercalated lithium compound as one electrode material, compared to the metallic lithium used in a non-rechargeable lithium battery. The electrolyte, which allows for ionic movement, and the two electrodes are the constituent components of a Li-ion cell.

Lithium batteries were initially developed in the 1970s by using titanium (IV) sulfide and lithium metal as the electrodes. However, titanium disulfide was a poor choice, since it has to be synthesized under completely sealed conditions, also being quite expensive. When exposed to air, titanium disulfide reacts to form hydrogen sulfide compounds which are toxic to most animals.

Batteries with metallic lithium electrodes presented safety issues, as lithium is a highly reactive element; it burns in normal atmospheric conditions because of spontaneous reactions with water and oxygen.

As a result, research moved to develop batteries in which, instead of metallic lithium, only lithium compounds are present, being capable of accepting and releasing lithium ions.

The graphic below shows the currently usable Lithium compounds in LIBs.

At first LIB were not cheap. Actually, the initial commercial LIBs in the mid-90s costed upwards of $3,000 per kWh of energy. However, with technology and manufacturing innovations, the cost of LIBs has come down dramatically, making it the battery of choice for EV applications.By developing mass scale LIB production in its Giga-factory, Tesla now claims that a Tesla Model S battery cost is $240 per kWh and that the expected cost for a Model 3 is $190 per kWh. At $240 kWh, lithium-ions become competitive with $3/gallon gas. At $150, they are even competitive with $2 gas.Therefore, it is expected that for next 5–10 years, the LIBs will rule the roost in so far their application in EV segment is concerned. In fact, experts estimate that lithium-ions will continue to increase capacity by 6–7% annually for a number of years.

This would only be possible with constant improvement of LIBs based on multiple advances. Some of these are as follows:

Efficient Manufacturing

Tesla has already demonstrated significant advances in battery design and production through its Giga-factory. Some of the other players are going to follow the game by better engineering and manufacturing processes, wider and longer cell design allows more materials packaged into each cell and new battery cooling system allows to fit more cells into battery pack.

Better Cathodes: Cathode optimization by manipulating the relative quantities of cobalt, aluminum, manganese and nickel into LIBs, it has significantly increased the energy density. Research is going on to find the materials that store maximum amount of ions.

Better Anodes: Using silicon anodes instead of current graphite ones can increase battery capacity by ten folds. But, silicon anodes have a problem of bloating in size, thus damaging the anode and finishing battery life. Some new approaches to make silicon anode workable include:

  • Encasing silicon in a graphene “cage” to prevent cracking after expansion.
  • Using silicon nano-wires, which can better handle the volume change.
  • Adding silicon in tiny amounts in current graphite anodes.

Solid-State Lithium-Ion: High performance batteries can be solid state ionic devices. To achieve the higher energy density in lower cost, development of a solid state electrolyte is essential. In 2017, a new solid-state battery has been unveiled, using glass electrolytes and an alkali-metal anode consisting of lithium, sodium. This design could increase energy density, but it still has some problems to resolve, such as ions moving too slowly through the solid electrolyte.

Emerging EV Battery Technologies

Currently, there are several approaches to battery innovations that may lead to making EVs ubiquitous. Certainly, path to commercialization is long, hard and may have pitfalls too. The graphic below summarizes the possible paradigm shift in the EV battery approach.

Extending Lithium-ion in other ways

There are various ways in which researchers are exploring use of lithium-ions in other chemistries and methods. Some of these are summarized below:

Metal Air Batteries

Some time back, there was an impetus on using metal air batteries, which subsided as the technology could not emerge and LIBs made major stride. Recently, there has been a renaissance in development of this technology.

Aluminum Air Batteries

A new found focus on Aluminum–air batteries has emerged. The driver being that Al-air chemistry has one of the highest energy densities among all batteries. In the past, high anode cost and efficient byproduct removal was a challenge. An electric vehicle with Al-air battery can possibly achieve up to eight times the range of a LIB with a lower weight.

Al-air batteries are primary cells, i.e., non-rechargeable. The aluminum anode is consumed by reacting with atmospheric oxygen (cathode) immersed in a water-based electrolyte to form hydrated aluminum oxide, the battery will no longer produce electricity. Mechanically, it is possible to resurrect the battery with new aluminum anodes. These could be recycled from aluminum hydroxide that is produced.

Phinergy, an Israeli company, has developed innovative aluminum-air battery that is capable of providing energy to power an electric vehicle (EV) for up to 1000 miles at a time albeit, with stops every 200 miles to fill water (electrolyte). It claims to have developed technology of using nano-silver filters that prevent carbon dioxide from entering the system, which used to be a problem earlier resulting in carbonization of the anode. Each anodic plate holds energy to carry an EV for 20 miles and the system currently holds 50 of the plates at one time, which add up to a capacity of 1000 miles. Once the anodes are depleted they must be replaced.

Zinc Air Batteries

Zinc has emerged as a candidate for energy source for EVs. Zinc–air batteries have some properties of fuel cells as well as batteries: the zinc is the fuel, the reaction rate can be controlled by varying the air flow, and oxidized zinc/electrolyte paste can be replaced.

Zinc–air batteries and zinc–air fuel cells are powered by oxidizing zinc with oxygen from the air. They have high energy densities and are relatively inexpensive to produce to the size needed for EVs propulsion.

The first rechargeable zinc-air batteries were produced in 1996 to power vehicles using AC-based drive-trains. The vehicles that first used zinc-air batteries were small and mid-sized buses in Singapore. The advantage of using the zinc–air batteries for EV propulsion is that earth’s supply of zinc is much more abundant than lithium. Research is on to see that zinc-air technology becomes commercialized.

Flow Batteries

A flow battery based on redox (reduction–oxidation), is a type of electrochemical cell where chemical energy is provided by two chemical components dissolved in liquids contained within the system and separated by a membrane. Ion exchange occurs through the membrane while both liquids circulate in their own respective space. A flow battery may be used like a fuel cell or a rechargeable battery.

Recent research excitement to make flow batteries commercially viable is driven by issues around charging infrastructure of current LIBs. Such batteries have technical advantages over conventional rechargeable ones.

In flow batteries, separate liquid tanks (for anolyte and catholyte) can be mounted on the car itself (just like current gasoline tanks) and thereby unlimited longevity can be achieved. Electrolyte stored in this manner is usually pumped through the cells of the battery. They can be rapidly “recharged” by replacing the electrolyte liquid (in a similar way to refilling fuel tanks of IC engines) while simultaneously recovering the spent material for re-energization.

Various types of flow batteries have been developed, including redox, hybrid and membrane less. The fundamental difference between conventional batteries and flow cells is that energy is stored not as the electrode material in conventional batteries but as the electrolyte in flow cells.

Membrane less flow battery approach at Purdue University

A flow battery technology developed by Purdue researchers claim an “instantly rechargeable” method that is safe, affordable and environmentally friendly, akin to refueling a car at a petrol station.

Essentially, the technology uses, redox reactions in immiscible-fluids in porous media to achieve membrane less flow battery.

They claim to be the first to remove membranes from flow batteries leading to reduction in costs and extension of battery life. Membrane fouling can limit the number of recharge cycles and is a known contributor to many battery fires. Their startup called ‘IFBattery’ is producing components that are safe enough to be kept in a home garage and are stable enough to meet major production and distribution requirements in a cost effective manner.

MIT approach to develop an air-breathing flow battery

An MIT team has developed another kind of flow battery that breathes air, and can store energy long-term for about a fifth of the cost of existing technologies.

Their design of rechargeable flow battery uses anolyte which is made up of sulfur dissolved in water and they complemented it with a catholyte that is equally abundant (an oxygenated liquid salt solution). It turned out to be sodium which is a charge carrier to go back and forth between the sulfur and air electrode. In search for low cost positive electrode that could be used with sulfur cathode, they found out to be oxygen (air). The smart element of this battery is the fact that the catholyte “breathes” in air in from outside while discharging, and exhales while recharging. By this mechanism, the battery creates negatively-charged hydroxide ions in the catholyte while inhaling, and while recharging that oxygen is released, creating hydrogen ions which then send electrons back into the anolyte. Interestingly, unlike humans, this battery inhales and exhales oxygen and not carbon dioxide. This creates a charge balance by taking oxygen in and out of the system.

They believe that this battery would cost far less to make and run than lithium-ion batteries, while retaining almost the same energy density. Once in use, they estimate a scaled-up version of their flow battery would cost between US$20 and $30 per kWh stored to run, compared to about $100 per kWh for other storage systems.

Conclusion

The future of battery technology is very exciting, across the world in many research labs, the scientists are looking exciting breakthroughs. However, in the near and medium terms most of the research is focused on improving the already-commercialized lithium-ion.

How the battery market transforms itself in the next two decades, one does not know yet. However, one thing is certain that through human endeavor some of these technologies reviewed above may lead the charge to a 100% renewable future.

 

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Cryptocurrency: Future or Mirage https://www.paradigmconsultant.com/cryptocurrency-future-or-mirage/ Mon, 15 Jan 2018 08:22:48 +0000 http://www.paradigmconsultant.com/?p=1704 Today, the minute you start watching any news channel or surf the internet, immediately some news or other on ‘Bitcoin or Blockchain’ pops up .

Currently, the idea of crypto-currencies is one of the most debated topics in the world of finance. Some eminent figures, like Jamie Dimon CEO, JP Morgan have termed it as a “fraud” and called those trading in it as “stupid.” But there are many other leading opinion makers who endorse crypto-currencies as one of the most revolutionary force of the future in the world of finance.

But, amid this chaos, there are whole host of people wonder what exactly is bitcoin and why this stuff is trading so high? In this blog, we would like to demystify some of these concerns.

 

History of Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency, as an entity has been in existence since a long time now. It emerged and came into being way before the currencies in today’s virtual instance emerged. Then it existed in the form of mathematical algorithm and principles from the field of computer science, technically the codes and scripts which were used to curtail past the shortcomings of currencies, practical in nature and political at times.

What is Cryptocurrency?

Ever since the arrival of Bitcoin as early as 2009, many similar projects using the same underlying idea have come up. This has led to the coining of the term ‘Cryptocurrency’, as a collective denomination to such virtual currencies.

The first obstacle that a layperson encounters in this new world is to understand its language. The core idea of such crypto-currencies is the concept of “Blockchain”. According to wikipeadia, a blockchain is a continuously growing list of records, called blocks, which are linked and secured using cryptography. Each block typically contains a hash pointer as a link to a previous block, a timestamp and transaction data. By design, blockchains are inherently resistant to modification of the data. It is “an open, distributed ledger that can record transactions between two parties efficiently and in a verifiable and permanent way”.

 

In a more simple term, cryptocurrency is something which is public and is free for anyone to join and be a part of. Though they differ a lot from one-another in terms of their details, the algorithms, cryptography of the public to private key, the applications pertaining to the real world, the transactions and of course, maintaining a secrecy of the account.

Defining Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency an entity of the virtual world is built using blockchain technology which is nothing but an array of protocols in the cryptographic language, a code which is extremely complex in its characteristics specifically scripted to provide secure and non-decrypt able data transfers. The minds behind this rely eminently on the use of advanced mathematics, and complicated computer engineering theories to curtail and render cracking each segment next to impossible. Not only do they maintain a barrier which is impossible to break, they have the ability to mask the user’s identity, which makes each and every transaction extremely personal and hides the attributes to the person or groups as concerned. Further, the concept of Cryptocurrency has been moulded into its fine structure by the mechanism of de-centralised control, which simply means that the whole innovation is not marked by a single server, rather all the networking components of the entity is handled by the respective users and is expected to do its job with smoother functioning and maintaining a perfect stability.

Seems ordinary? But it isn’t, rather that’s how an exact definition of a currency can be framed. For example; what will happen if you take the money out of your bank account? The only thing remaining will be entries in a database, and is subject to change pertaining to specific conditions. You can also take some coins and notes too, they are also entries limited in number in a database which is physical in presence, and can be changed if and only if you are in possession of the coins or notes. So, money is nothing other than a verified entity to be worthy of entry in some database.

Bitcoin the Modern Avatar of Cryptocurrency

Satoshi Nakamoto (considered to be a fictional figure), brought open to the public the whole concept of Bitcoin, and instantly gathered a group of supporters who enthusiastically took part in exchanging and transacting with this virtual currency.

The first of its kind, Bitcoin became the most used and innovative cryptocurrency to be used publicly for exchange and transactions combined with a decentralized control, giving each user the access the right to hide or showcase themselves, holding the transaction records in place through block chain, and ultimately the scarcity which was built-into the system.

But soon by the end of 2010, dozens of other crypto-currencies serving various purposes such as the Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and many of its kind emerged.

Future of Bitcoin and other Crypto-currencies

When the future of the crypto-currencies is discussed, many argue that these coins can solve many problems that the world faces today. One humanitarian use of such currency is as a solution to problems for stateless people as way to overcome citizenship issues, so to speak.

Having proven its pre-eminence and its first mover advantage, gives Bitcoin the staying power in the market as the cryptocurrency. But what does the future hold? Its biggest risk tends to be the parallel treatment of other crypto-currencies, which has the potential to substitute it anytime and question its prominence. But as claimed by the hardcore users of Bitcoin, that due to it’s extremely large share in the market of about 80%, the argument becomes infructuous.

Anyway, when one sees from the context of Bitcoin’s emergence, it is simply gold of this 21st century, but having no issues related to storage! Also having the utmost potential of evolving into something better in the near future, but it still holds a very volatile nature, which needs careful handling.

The Hype and Bubble around Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin itself may be a bubble, the degree to which the world is looking into blockchain and cryptocurrencies illustrates that a new world is on the horizon.

How exactly that market will mature is unknown. No one could have predicted what would follow when the first email was sent in 1971. Similarly when new websites such as SnapChat or Twitter first rolled out people mocked them as impractical. The creators of all these then new technologies laughed their way to the bank.

 

The year of 2017 just ended, but ended on a great note for Bitcoiners! Unexpectedly the market cap of Bitcoin reached as high as $370 Billion, while having started with $17 Billion in Jan’17.

Seeing this huge rise, several people and cryptocurrency enthusiasts shared their prophecies, mentioned below;

  1. Crypto market cap may reach 1 Trillion USD by 2018 end.
  2. Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs may take over the by financing options from IPOs & VCs.
  3. The market shall embrace new form of tokens.
  4. Bitcoin and other prevailing crypto-currencies stand a chance of getting banned in many countries.
  5. The prices of the crypto-currencies will become stable and people may return to tangible transactions.

Conclusion

Some of the above inferences are drawn statistically from the prevalent data, but if one goes by intuition there are 50–50 percent chances of the cryptocurrency to fail or surge. No one can truly support their opinion with 100 percent surety about what the future holds, but surely this innovation has brought about a huge change in today’s society. If this technology prevails in the times to come, it can radically change the financial system that we know and fiat currencies may ultimately disappear.

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